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High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Schöngart

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    ETH Zürich
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Zebedee Nicholls

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Climate Resource
    The University of Melbourne)

  • Roman Hoffmann

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Setu Pelz

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

Abstract

Climate injustice persists as those least responsible often bear the greatest impacts, both between and within countries. Here we show how GHG emissions from consumption and investments attributable to the wealthiest population groups have disproportionately influenced present-day climate change. We link emissions inequality over the period 1990–2020 to regional climate extremes using an emulator-based framework. We find that two-thirds (one-fifth) of warming is attributable to the wealthiest 10% (1%), meaning that individual contributions are 6.5 (20) times the average per capita contribution. For extreme events, the top 10% (1%) contributed 7 (26) times the average to increases in monthly 1-in-100-year heat extremes globally and 6 (17) times more to Amazon droughts. Emissions from the wealthiest 10% in the United States and China led to a two- to threefold increase in heat extremes across vulnerable regions. Quantifying the link between wealth disparities and climate impacts can assist in the discourse on climate equity and justice.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Schöngart & Zebedee Nicholls & Roman Hoffmann & Setu Pelz & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2025. "High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(6), pages 627-633, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02325-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02325-x
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    1. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    2. Justin Sheffield & Eric F. Wood & Michael L. Roderick, 2012. "Little change in global drought over the past 60 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7424), pages 435-438, November.
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