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Climate change increases global risk to urban forests

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Mark G. Tjoelker

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Jonathan Lenoir

    (Université de Picardie Jules Verne)

  • John B. Baumgartner

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Linda J. Beaumont

    (Macquarie University North Ryde)

  • David A. Nipperess

    (Macquarie University North Ryde)

  • Sally A. Power

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Benoît Richard

    (Normandie University, UNIROUEN, INRAE, ECODIV)

  • Paul D. Rymer

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Rachael V. Gallagher

    (Western Sydney University)

Abstract

Climate change threatens the health and survival of urban trees and the various benefits they deliver to urban inhabitants. Here, we show that 56% and 65% of species in 164 cities across 78 countries are currently exceeding temperature and precipitation conditions experienced in their geographic range, respectively. We assessed 3,129 tree and shrub species, using three metrics related to climate vulnerability: exposure, safety margin and risk. By 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0, 2,387 (76%) and 2,220 (70%) species will be at risk from projected changes in mean annual temperature and annual precipitation, respectively. Risk is predicted to be greatest in cities at low latitudes—such as New Delhi and Singapore—where all urban tree species are vulnerable to climate change. These findings aid the evaluation of the impacts of climate change to secure long-term benefits provided by urban forests.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez & Mark G. Tjoelker & Jonathan Lenoir & John B. Baumgartner & Linda J. Beaumont & David A. Nipperess & Sally A. Power & Benoît Richard & Paul D. Rymer & Rachael V. Gallagher, 2022. "Climate change increases global risk to urban forests," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(10), pages 950-955, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01465-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01465-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Adriana da Silva Santos & Inti de Souza & Jana Magaly Tesserolli de Souza & Valter Roberto Schaffrath & Franklin Galvão & Rafael Bohn Reckziegel, 2023. "Urban Parks in Curitiba as Biodiversity Refuges of Montane Mixed Ombrophilous Forests," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Donghe Li & Huigang Mu & Yelin Gao & Min Lu & Chunlu Liu, 2022. "A GIS-Based Analysis of the Carbon-Oxygen Balance of Urban Forests in the Southern Mountainous Area of Jinan, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Yilun Zhao & Yan Rong & Yiyi Liu & Tianshu Lin & Liangji Kong & Qinqin Dai & Runzi Wang, 2023. "Investigating Urban Flooding and Nutrient Export under Different Urban Development Scenarios in the Rouge River Watershed in Michigan, USA," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-25, December.
    4. Qahtan, Talal F. & Alade, Ibrahim O. & Rahaman, Md Safiqur & Saleh, Tawfik A., 2023. "Mapping the research landscape of hydrogen production through electrocatalysis: A decade of progress and key trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    5. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Dong, Kangyin & Zhao, Congyu & Phoumin, Han, 2023. "Can financial and economic means accelerate renewable energy growth in the climate change era? The case of China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 730-743.

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