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Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre K. Magnan

    (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI-Sciences Po)
    LIENSs laboratory UMR7266, La Rochelle University-CNRS)

  • Hans-Otto Pörtner

    (Alfred Wegener Institute)

  • Virginie K. E. Duvat

    (LIENSs laboratory UMR7266, La Rochelle University-CNRS)

  • Matthias Garschagen

    (Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU))

  • Valeria A. Guinder

    (Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía (IADO), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET))

  • Zinta Zommers

    (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
    United Nations Headquaters)

  • Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

    (University of Queensland)

  • Jean-Pierre Gattuso

    (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI-Sciences Po)
    Sorbonne University, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche
    Ocean Acidification and other Changes: Impacts and Solutions Initiative, Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation)

Abstract

The three recent Special Reports of the IPCC provide an opportunity to understand overarching climate risk, as they cover a wide diversity of risks to natural and human systems. Here we develop a scoring system to translate qualitative IPCC risk assessments into risk scores that, when aggregated, describe global risk from climate change. By the end of this century, global climate risk will increase substantially with greenhouse gas emissions compared to today (composite risk score increase of two- and fourfold under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). Comparison of risk levels under +1.5 °C and +2 °C suggests that every additional 0.5 °C of global warming will contribute to higher risk globally (by about a third). Societal adaptation has the potential to decrease global climate risk substantially (by about half) under all RCPs, but cannot fully prevent residual risks from increasing (by one-third under RCP2.6 and doubling under RCP8.5, compared to today).

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre K. Magnan & Hans-Otto Pörtner & Virginie K. E. Duvat & Matthias Garschagen & Valeria A. Guinder & Zinta Zommers & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Jean-Pierre Gattuso, 2021. "Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(10), pages 879-885, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01156-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01156-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Peiyu & Yin, Yanchao & Xu, Xianmang & Yang, Deliang & Wang, Jin & Yang, Fuxing & Zhang, Guojie, 2022. "Facile fabrication of mesoporosity silica as support for solid amine CO2 adsorbents with enhanced adsorption capacity and kinetics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    2. Lena I. Fuldauer & Scott Thacker & Robyn A. Haggis & Francesco Fuso-Nerini & Robert J. Nicholls & Jim W. Hall, 2022. "Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Toundji Olivier Amoussou & Sarah Edore Edewor & Yaye Deffa Wane & Chibuye Florence Kunda-Wamuwi & Donissongou Dimitri Soro, 2023. "Exploring the Influence of the Interaction of Climate Change, Manmade Threats and COVID-19 on the Livelihoods of Wetland Communities in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(4), pages 1-97, May.
    4. Tom Spencer & Alexandre K. Magnan & Simon Donner & Matthias Garschagen & James Ford & Virginie K. E. Duvat & Colette C. C. Wabnitz, 2024. "Habitability of low-lying socio-ecological systems under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Ary José A. Souza-Jr., 2022. "Subjective well-being and climate change: Evidence for Portugal," Working Papers REM 2022/0213, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Zanin, Luca, 2023. "A flexible estimation of sectoral portfolio exposure to climate transition risks in the European stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    7. Bartnicki, Grzegorz & Klimczak, Marcin & Ziembicki, Piotr, 2023. "Evaluation of the effects of optimization of gas boiler burner control by means of an innovative method of Fuel Input Factor," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    8. Christian Huggel & Laurens M. Bouwer & Sirkku Juhola & Reinhard Mechler & Veruska Muccione & Ben Orlove & Ivo Wallimann-Helmer, 2022. "The existential risk space of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-20, September.
    9. Tafone, Alessio & Raj Thangavelu, Sundar & Morita, Shigenori & Romagnoli, Alessandro, 2023. "Design optimization of a novel cryo-polygeneration demonstrator developed in Singapore – Techno-economic feasibility study for a cooling dominated tropical climate," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(PB).

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