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Non linearità e dinamica della dimensione d'impresa in Italia

  • Basile Roberto
  • De Nardis Sergio

Utilizzando i dati ISTAT sulle imprese manifatturiere italiane nate nel 1996 e attive nel 2000, si analizza la dinamica della dimensione d'impresa tramite due differenti tecniche non parametriche: la regressione locale lineare e la densità condizionata. La prima suggerisce la presenza di forti non linearità nel processo di crescita dimensionale, fornendo nuovi spunti al dibattito sulla legge di Gibrat: la relazione tra crescita e dimensione iniziale esiste, ma entro certi limiti dimensionali. La seconda metodologia, consistente in stime di densità condizionate, viene adottata perché la media condizionata, pur stimata con tecniche non parametriche, può perdere la sua capacità di rappresentare il fenomeno in presenza di forti asimmetrie e bimodalità nella distribuzione. La verifica evidenzia che fenomeni di bimodalità non sembrano esistere, se non in corrispondenza di dimensioni minime (1-2 dipendenti). Le stime di densità condizionata mostrano, inoltre, che intorno ai 15 addetti, in corrispondenza dei quali si ha un rilevante mutamento nelle regole del mercato del lavoro, prevalgono comportamenti di inerzia o di contrazione, particolarmente evidenti quando si limita l'analisi con dimensione iniziale compresa tra 5 e 25 dipendenti.

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Article provided by Società editrice il Mulino in its journal Rivista italiana degli economisti.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 423-454

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Handle: RePEc:mul:jqat1f:doi:10.1427/19763:y:2004:i:3:p:423-454
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  1. Garibaldi, Pietro & Pacelli, Lia & Borgarello, Andrea, 2003. "Employment Protection Legislation and the Size of Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 787, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. F. Lotti & E. Santarelli & M. Vivarelli, 1999. "Does Gibrat’s Law Hold in the Case of Young, Small Firms?," Working Papers 361, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  3. Gianni Principe, 2003. "Soglie Dimensionali e Regolazione del Rapporto di Lavoro in Italia," ISAE Working Papers 36, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  4. Jinyong Hahn & Petra Todd & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 1999. "Evaluating the Effect of an Antidiscrimination Law Using a Regression-Discontinuity Design," NBER Working Papers 7131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Cabral, Luís M B & Mata, José, 2001. "On the Evolution of the Firm Size Distribution: Facts and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 3045, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. F. Lotti & E. Santarelli, 2001. "Industry Dynamics and the Distiribution of Firm Sizes: A Non-Parametric Apporoach," Working Papers 406, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  7. Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli, 2004. "Industry Dynamics and the Distribution of Firm Sizes: A Nonparametric Approach," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 443-466, January.
  8. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
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