IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mgs/ijmsba/v6y2020i6p41-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Analysis of Romanian Capital, Forex and Monetary Markets: Volatilities and Contagion

Author

Listed:
  • Carmen Emilia Pascal

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Insurance, Banking and Stock Exchange, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

This paper focuses on stability relations for the Romanian main financial markets: capital, ForEx and monetary markets, as well as the intensity of the link between them and how they are interconnected, because this represents the best indicator of the situation of an economy, which is seen as a complex, adaptive and dynamic system, that is continuously changing. This analysis examines their deviation from the state of equilibrium, and what are the factors that modify this state. The study incorporates the markets evolution, their estimated volatilities, it shows that the most sensitive to the impact of a financial shock are the currency and the stock market. All the obtained results are correlated with events, news and market information from those particular moments to find explanations and understand the behavior of investors and how their decisions affected the market. Because of instability on some markets, investors started moving their finances to other markets, where they had more confidence, causing imbalances. Behavior of investors, as they react to the emergence of a shock, is decisive and extremely important in anticipating the effects that such a financial shock can produce. The values of the estimated volatilities were embedded into a volatility table to be easier to track their evolution over the period under review (2007 – 2018). Besides the financial crisis, there have been other events that have translated into a higher degree of volatility: raising the minimum wage, the Brexit, protests against corruption, the raise of salaries for the public workers which has created instability in the monetary market. The analysis continues with an estimate of a spillover index that only confirms the significant vulnerability period in the markets: 2010-2012, period during which the phenomenon of contagion may have occurred.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Emilia Pascal, 2020. "An Analysis of Romanian Capital, Forex and Monetary Markets: Volatilities and Contagion," International Journal of Management Science and Business Administration, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 6(6), pages 41-50, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mgs:ijmsba:v:6:y:2020:i:6:p:41-50
    DOI: 10.18775/ijmsba.1849-5664-5419.2014.66.1004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://researchleap.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/04.-An_Analysis_of_Romanian_Capital_Forex_and_Monetory_Markets_Volatilities.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://researchleap.com/analysis-romanian-capital-forex-monetary-markets-volatilities-contagion/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18775/ijmsba.1849-5664-5419.2014.66.1004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Perego, Erica, 2020. "Sovereign risk and asset market dynamics in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Yang Liu & BRUCE MORLEY, 2013. "Sovereign Credit Ratings, The Macroeconomy And Credit Default Swap Spreads," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 56(3-4), pages 335-348.
    3. Wegener, Christoph & Kruse, Robinson & Basse, Tobias, 2019. "The walking debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 382-402.
    4. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Mensi, Walid, 2017. "Interdependence and contagion among industry-level US credit markets: An application of wavelet and VMD based copula approaches," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 310-324.
    5. Ricci, Ornella, 2015. "The impact of monetary policy announcements on the stock price of large European banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 245-255.
    6. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
    7. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Li, Ka-Fai & Fu, John, 2018. "Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 98-110.
    8. Susanna Saroyan & Lilit Popoyan, 2017. "Bank-sovereign ties against interbank market integration: the case of the Italian segment," LEM Papers Series 2017/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro & Jean-Paul Renne & Guillaume Roussellet, 2021. "Affine Modeling of Credit Risk, Pricing of Credit Events, and Contagion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3674-3693, June.
    10. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    11. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "How the euro-area sovereign-debt crisis led to a collapse in bank equity prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-275.
    12. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Serwa, Dobromił, 2016. "Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-189.
    13. Graham Bird & Wenti Du & Thomas Willett, 2017. "Behavioral Finance and Efficient Markets: What does the Euro Crisis Tell us?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 273-295, April.
    14. Mr. Frigyes F Heinz & Ms. Yan M Sun, 2014. "Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2014/017, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi & Bert Scholtens, 2016. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance and sovereign bond spreads: an empirical analysis of OECD countries," Working Papers hal-01401718, HAL.
    16. Babalos, Vassilios & Stavroyiannis, Stavros, 2017. "Modelling correlation dynamics of EMU sovereign debt markets during the recent turmoil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1021-1029.
    17. Benedict Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & João Jalles & Bernat Adrogue, 2023. "Climate Change and Government Borrowing Costs: A Triple Whammy for Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers REM 2023/0295, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Jozef Barunik & Mattia Bevilacqua & Radu Tunaru, 2022. "Asymmetric Network Connectedness of Fears," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1304-1316, November.
    19. Eleonora Cutrini & Giorgio Galeazzi, 2017. "External Public Debt, Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(9), pages 1718-1749, September.
    20. Drakos, Anastasios & Moratis, Georgios, 2024. "The impact of COVID-19 on sovereign contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital market; contagion; foreign exchange market; GARCH; spillover index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M00 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mgs:ijmsba:v:6:y:2020:i:6:p:41-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bojan Obrenovic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://researchleap.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.