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A Keynesian explanation of Indian government bond yields

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  • Tanweer Akram
  • Anupam Das

Abstract

John Maynard Keynes held that the central bank’s actions mainly determine long-term interest rates through short-term interest rates and various monetary policy measures. His conjectures about the determinants of long-term interest rates were made in the context of advanced capitalist economies and were based on his views on liquidity preference, ontological uncertainty, and the formation of investors’ expectations. Is Keynes’s conjecture that the central bank’s action is the main driver of long-term interest rates valid in emerging markets, such as India? This paper empirically investigates the determinants of changes in Indian government bonds’ nominal yields. Changes in short-term interest rates, after controlling for other crucial variables, such as changes in the rate of inflation and the rate of economic activity, take a lead role in driving the changes of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds. This suggests that Keynes’s views on long-term interest rates can also be applicable to emerging markets. The empirical findings reveal that higher fiscal deficits do not appear to exert upward pressures on government bond yields in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2015. "A Keynesian explanation of Indian government bond yields," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 565-587, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:38:y:2015:i:4:p:565-587
    DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2015.1090294
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    1. Bindseil, Ulrich, 2004. "Monetary Policy Implementation: Theory, past, and present," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199274543, Decembrie.
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    1. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2020. "Australian Government Bonds’ Nominal Yields: A Keynesian Perspective," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Tanweer Akram, 2021. "A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(2), pages 323-339, October.
    3. B M, Lithin & chakraborty, Suman & iyer, Vishwanathan & M N, Nikhil & ledwani, Sanket, 2022. "Modeling asymmetric sovereign bond yield volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 117067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2023.
    4. Anupam Das & Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Keynesian analysis of Canadian government securities yields," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(294), pages 241-260.
    5. Xenaneira Shodrokova & Bernadette Robiani & Anna Yulianita, 2025. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Macroeconomics on Long-term Government Bond Yields Interest Rate in Emerging Markets: ARDL Approach," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 113-132.
    6. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2021. "An empirical analysis of long-term Brazilian interest rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, September.

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