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Financial Fragility and Mexico's 1994 Peso Crisis: An Event-Window Analysis of Market-Valuation Effects

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  • Wilson, Berry
  • Saunders, Anthony
  • Caprio, Gerard, Jr

Abstract

Persistent cycles of devaluation, debt repudiation, and financial crisis have been recurrent themes in Latin America and elsewhere. This study focuses on one such event, namely, the Mexican peso devaluation, debt, and financial-sector crisis of 1994-95. This paper utilizes an event-study framework, with daily stock market data, to document financial market responses to the unfolding crisis. In particular, we find that the devaluation itself was viewed as relatively benign by market participants. The results also show little evidence that investors anticipated the peso devaluation, the declining reserve levels of Mexico's central bank, and the increasing sovereign default risk of Mexico. However, the results suggest that the equity markets did respond positively to remedial actions taken by governmental authorities, such as the Clinton bailout plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilson, Berry & Saunders, Anthony & Caprio, Gerard, Jr, 2000. "Financial Fragility and Mexico's 1994 Peso Crisis: An Event-Window Analysis of Market-Valuation Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 450-468, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:32:y:2000:i:3:p:450-68
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    1. repec:eee:reacre:v:23:y:2011:i:1:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2004. "Terrorism-induced structural shifts in financial risk: airline stocks in the aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 435-446, June.
    3. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:419-442 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Haque, Mahfuzul & Varela, Oscar & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2007. "Safety-first and extreme value bilateral U.S.-Mexican portfolio optimization around the peso crisis and NAFTA in 1994," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-469, July.
    5. Wilson, Berry & Saunders, Anthony, 2004. "Monetary secrecy and selective disclosure: The emerging market case of Mexico's monetary reporting," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 199-210.
    6. Patro, Dilip K. & Wald, John K. & Wu, Yangru, 2014. "Currency devaluation and stock market response: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 79-94.

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