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Öregedő népesség, medián választó és a jóléti állam mérete
[Ageing population, the median voter and the size of the welfare state]

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  • Simonovits, András

Abstract

Ez a cikk három olyan modellt elemez, amelyben az együttélő nemzedékek jövedelem- újraelosztó mechanizmusát a medián választó működteti, s ez magyarázza a jóléti állam méretét. A cikk első része Razin és szerzőtársai [2002] tanulmányával foglalkozik, amely egy általuk rejtélyesnek tartott megfigyelésről számolt be: ceteris paribus az eltartott/eltartó hányados és a jóléti állam mérete között negatív korreláció van. E jelenség magyarázatára egy olyan modellt szerkesztettek, amelyben a) a dolgozók ugyanakkora (keresettől független) járadékot kapnak, mint az idősek és b) a dolgozóknak exogén várakozásuk van az időskori adókulcsról, tehát nyugdíjukról. A paradoxon az, hogyan keverhették össze a szerzők a népesség öregedését az eltartottak arányának növekedésével. Az elméleti részre térve, a tényekkel ellentétes két feltételt általánosabb és valósághoz hűségesebb feltevésekkel cserélem ki. Az anomáliák egy része megszűnik, a paradoxon fennmarad, azonban reális nagyságú járadékhányad esetén a szegényebb dolgozóknak jelentős hitelt kellene felvenniük, s ez szintén ellentmond a valóságnak. A cikk második része továbbfejleszti Casamatta és szerzőtársai [2000] modelljét, amely a keresetfüggő nyugdíj és az optimális járulékkulcs kapcsolatát vizsgálta - Razin és szerzőtársai által elhanyagolt hitelkorlát figyelembevételével. Razin és szerzőtársai ötletét átmentve, bevezetjük a mérsékelt dolgozói járadékot is. Megfelelően rugalmatlan időbeli helyettesítés esetén a paradoxon eltűnik. A cikk harmadik része Tabellini [2000] modelljét vázolja. Ez a modell abban tér el a korábbiaktól, hogy döntésükben a szülők és gyermekeik kölcsönösen figyelembe veszik egymás fogyasztását. Bár a szerző Razin és szerzőtársaihoz hasonló exogén várakozást feltételez, a paradoxon mégis eltűnik. A következtetésekben kétségbe vonjuk, hogy az egész modellcsalád feltevései alkalmasak a kérdések megválaszolására.* Journal of Economics Literature (JEL) kód: H55, 041, O9.

Suggested Citation

  • Simonovits, András, 2003. "Öregedő népesség, medián választó és a jóléti állam mérete [Ageing population, the median voter and the size of the welfare state]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 835-854.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Tabellini, Guido, 2000. " A Positive Theory of Social Security," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 523-545, June.
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    8. Georges Casamatta & Helmuth Cremer & Pierre Pestieau, 2000. "The Political Economy of Social Security," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 503-522, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simonovits, András, 2013. "Egyszerű paternalista transzfermodellek családja [A family of simple paternalistic transfer models]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 402-430.
    2. Simonovits, András, 2018. "Hogyan értékelte alá a tb-nyugdíj "optimális" szintjét Feldstein 1985-ben? [How did Feldstein undervalue the "optimal" level of social-security benefits?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 66-73.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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