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Public transport crowding valuation in a post-pandemic era

Author

Listed:
  • Menno Yap

    (Delft University of Technology
    Transport for London)

  • Howard Wong

    (Transport for London
    University College London)

  • Oded Cats

    (Delft University of Technology)

Abstract

It is important to understand how public transport passengers value on-board crowding since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main contribution of this study is to derive the crowding valuation of public transport passengers in a post-pandemic era entirely based on observed, actual passenger route choices. We derive passengers’ crowding valuation for the London metro network based on a revealed preference discrete choice model using maximum likelihood estimation. We find that after the passenger load on-board the metro reaches the seat capacity, the in-vehicle time valuation increases by 0.42 for each increase in the average number of standing passengers per square metre upon boarding. When comparing this result to a variety of crowding valuation studies conducted before the pandemic in London and elsewhere, we can conclude that public transport passengers value crowding more negatively since the pandemic. Furthermore, we found a ratio between out-of-vehicle time and in-vehicle time of 1.94 pre-pandemic and of 1.92 post-pandemic, based on which we conclude that the relative waiting/walking time valuation did not significantly change since the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study results contribute to a better understanding on how on-board crowding in urban public transport is perceived in a European context since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Menno Yap & Howard Wong & Oded Cats, 2025. "Public transport crowding valuation in a post-pandemic era," Transportation, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 287-306, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:52:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11116-023-10420-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-023-10420-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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