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Potential changes to travel behaviors & patterns: a fuzzy cognitive map modeling approach

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  • Rachel Vogt
  • Haizhong Wang
  • Brian Gregor
  • Alex Bettinardi

Abstract

The future of travel will be affected by a number of disruptive changes, including advancements in vehicle technology, such as automated vehicles, changes in population demographics and the economy, and lifestyle changes. It is difficult to say just how much each change will affect the amount and type of travel in the future, especially given the amount of uncertainty there is regarding the trajectory of these changes and their effects. The authors examined changes that are likely to affect transportation behaviors in the future, developed a “fuzzy cognitive map” (FCM) of the relationships, and used the FCM model to investigate the effects of those relationships. The results of the study show that FCM models offer a promising method for transportation planners to enhance their ability to reason about system effects when quantitative information is limited and uncertain. More specifically, the results provide some initial guidance on the potential impacts of disruptive changes on future travel, which may help in targeting limited research funds on the most consequential potential changes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Rachel Vogt & Haizhong Wang & Brian Gregor & Alex Bettinardi, 2015. "Potential changes to travel behaviors & patterns: a fuzzy cognitive map modeling approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 967-984, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:42:y:2015:i:6:p:967-984
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-015-9657-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Weinert, Jonathan X. & Ma, Chaktan & Yang, Xinmiao, 2006. "The Transition to Electric Bikes in China and its Effect on Travel Behavior, Transit Use, and Safety," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt38b3q3jg, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Debmallya Chatterjee & Amol S. Dhaigude, 2020. "An Integrated Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach in Modelling Factors of Management Quality in Banking Performance," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 763-779, June.

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