IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v58y2022i4d10.1007_s11156-021-01036-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accounting information and left-tail risk

Author

Listed:
  • Irfan Safdar

    (Widener University)

  • Michael Neel

    (University of North Texas)

  • Babatunde Odusami

    (Widener University)

Abstract

Several recent studies attribute stock price crashes to firms withholding bad news from financial disclosures before a stock price crash. Contrary to this notion, we find evidence of a robust link between information in a firm’s financial disclosures and potential left-tail risk. We document that the sophisticated equity options traders incorporate information derived from financial statements about left-tail risk into prices of out-of-the-money put options on a firm’s equity, implying that a firm’s financial disclosures contain significant information relevant to pricing expected crash risk. However, we find that stock market investors at large appear to overlook this link and fail to incorporate information in financial disclosures about left-tail risk into stock prices in a timely fashion, potentially contributing to the severity of the eventual crash. These findings contradict the notion that managers can fully conceal information pertinent to left-tail risks and highlight the role of potential errors by investors in processing accounting information pertinent to left-tail risks. Our study is amongst the first to link financial statement analysis to expected crash risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Irfan Safdar & Michael Neel & Babatunde Odusami, 2022. "Accounting information and left-tail risk," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1709-1740, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:58:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-021-01036-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-021-01036-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-021-01036-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-021-01036-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    2. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    3. Piotroski, JD, 2000. "Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38, pages 1-41.
    4. Hutton, Amy P. & Marcus, Alan J. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2009. "Opaque financial reports, R2, and crash risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 67-86, October.
    5. Xu, Nianhang & Jiang, Xuanyu & Chan, Kam C. & Yi, Zhihong, 2013. "Analyst coverage, optimism, and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 217-239.
    6. Hong-Yi Chen & Cheng Few Lee & Wei-Kang Shih, 2020. "Technical, Fundamental, and Combined Information for Separating Winners from Losers," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 95, pages 3319-3365, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
    8. Hung, Shengmin & Qiao, Zheng, 2017. "Shadows in the Sun: Crash risk behind Earnings Transparency," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-18.
    9. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    10. Angelo Aspris & Nigel Finch & Sean Foley & Zachary Meyer, 2013. "Fundamental-based Market Strategies," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 23(4), pages 380-392, December.
    11. Aman, Hiroyuki, 2013. "An analysis of the impact of media coverage on stock price crashes and jumps: Evidence from Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 22-38.
    12. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    13. Kim, Yongtae & Li, Haidan & Li, Siqi, 2014. "Corporate social responsibility and stock price crash risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.
    15. Jin, Li & Myers, Stewart C., 2006. "R2 around the world: New theory and new tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 257-292, February.
    16. Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Lingxiang Li, 2016. "Abnormal real operations, real earnings management, and subsequent crashes in stock prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 217-260, February.
    17. David R. Gallagher & Peter A. Gardner & Camille H. Schmidt & Terry S. Walter, 2014. "Portfolio Quality and Mutual Fund Performance," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 485-521, December.
    18. Li, Tao & Xiang, Cheng & Liu, Zhuo & Cai, Wenwu, 2020. "Annual report disclosure timing and stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Pedro Santa-Clara & Shu Yan, 2010. "Crashes, Volatility, and the Equity Premium: Lessons from S&P 500 Options," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 435-451, May.
    20. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Leye & Lu, Louise Yi & Yu, Yangxin, 2016. "Financial statement comparability and expected crash risk," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 294-312.
    21. Joseph D. Piotroski & Eric C. So, 2012. "Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2841-2875.
    22. Ahsan Habib & Mostafa Monzur Hasan & Haiyan Jiang, 2018. "Stock price crash risk: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 211-251, November.
    23. Jeong†Bon Kim & Liandong Zhang, 2014. "Financial Reporting Opacity and Expected Crash Risk: Evidence from Implied Volatility Smirks," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 851-875, September.
    24. Pradip Banerjee & Soumya G. Deb, 2017. "Abnormal returns using accounting information within a value portfolio," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(01), pages 73-88, May.
    25. Cai, Guilong & Xu, Yue & Yu, Degan & Zhang, Junsheng & Zheng, Guojiang, 2019. "Strengthened board monitoring from parent company and stock price crash risk of subsidiary firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 352-368.
    26. Anwer S. Ahmed & Irfan Safdar, 2018. "Dissecting stock price momentum using financial statement analysis," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 3-43, November.
    27. Jeong†Bon Kim & Liandong Zhang, 2016. "Accounting Conservatism and Stock Price Crash Risk: Firm†level Evidence," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 412-441, March.
    28. Ng, Chi Cheong Allen & Shen, Jianfu, 2016. "Screen winners from losers using simple fundamental analysis in the Pacific-Basin stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 159-177.
    29. S. P. Kothari & Susan Shu & Peter D. Wysocki, 2009. "Do Managers Withhold Bad News?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 241-276, March.
    30. Sun, Sophia Li & Habib, Ahsan & Huang, Hedy Jiaying, 2019. "Tournament incentives and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-117.
    31. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    32. Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Lingxiang Li, 2016. "Abnormal real operations, real earnings management, and subsequent crashes in stock prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 217-260, February.
    33. Chang, Xin & Chen, Yangyang & Zolotoy, Leon, 2017. "Stock Liquidity and Stock Price Crash Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 1605-1637, August.
    34. Lv, Dayong & Wu, Wenfeng, 2019. "Margin-trading volatility and stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 179-196.
    35. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2006. "Profitability, investment and average returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 491-518, December.
    36. David L. Ikenberry & Sundaresh Ramnath, 2002. "Underreaction to Self-Selected News Events: The Case of Stock Splits," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 489-526, March.
    37. Soo Yeon Park & Hyun-Young Park, 2019. "Do statutory internal auditors influence stock price crash risk? Firm-level evidence from Korea," Managerial Auditing Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(2), pages 207-237, November.
    38. Zhe An & Wenlian Gao & Donghui Li & Feifei Zhu, 2018. "The Impact of Firm‐Level Illiquidity on Crash Risk and the Role of Media Independence: International Evidence," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 547-593, December.
    39. Wei Zhou & Liansheng Wu & Hong Wang, 2016. "The Consequences of Increasing the Scope of Managerial Judgement in Accounting Standards," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(3), pages 404-440, September.
    40. Yang, Xiaolan & Zhu, Yu & Cheng, Teng Yuan, 2020. "How the individual investors took on big data: The effect of panic from the internet stock message boards on stock price crash," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    41. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Yinghua & Zhang, Liandong, 2011. "Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 639-662, June.
    42. Bai, Min & Xu, Limin & Yu, Chia-Feng (Jeffrey) & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2020. "Superstition and stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    43. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Chi Lu & Carl Hsin-han Shen & Pai-Ta Shih & Wei‐Che Tsai, 2023. "Option implied riskiness and risk-taking incentives of executive compensation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1143-1160, April.
    2. Anna Agapova & Jagadison K. Aier & Zhanel DeVides, 2022. "Earnings patterns and managerial guidance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1173-1213, October.
    3. Hang Lin & Lixin Liu & Zhengjun Zhang, 2023. "Tail Risk Signal Detection through a Novel EGB2 Option Pricing Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-32, July.
    4. Wang, Chen & Xiong, Xiong & Shen, Dehua, 2022. "Tail risks, firm characteristics, and stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Jing & Qiu, Yuhang, 2023. "Does non-punitive regulation diminish stock price crash risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Lu, Xian-wei & Fung, Hung-Gay & Su, Zhong-qin, 2018. "Information leakage, site visits, and crash risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 487-507.
    3. Hossain, Ashrafee T. & Masum, Abdullah-Al & Xu, Jian, 2023. "COVID-19, a blessing in disguise for the Tech sector: Evidence from stock price crash risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Harper, Joel & Johnson, Grace & Sun, Li, 2020. "Stock price crash risk and CEO power: Firm-level analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Meng, Yongqiang & Shen, Dehua & Xiong, Xiong, 2023. "When stock price crash risk meets fundamentals," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Li, Tao & Xiang, Cheng & Liu, Zhuo & Cai, Wenwu, 2020. "Annual report disclosure timing and stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Zhao, Ruwei, 2020. "Quantifying the correlation of media coverage and stock price crash risk: A panel study from China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 537(C).
    8. Ge-zhi Wu & Da-ming You, 2021. ""Stabilizer" or "catalyst"? How green technology innovation affects the risk of stock price crashes: an analysis based on the quantity and quality of patents," Papers 2106.16177, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    9. Chen, Jing & Liu, Xinghe & Ou, Fenghao & Lu, Meiting & Wang, Peipei, 2023. "Green lending and stock price crash risk: Evidence from the green credit reform in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    10. Lin, Tse-Chun & Liu, Jinyu & Ni, Xiaoran, 2022. "Foreign bank entry deregulation and stock market stability: Evidence from staggered regulatory changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 185-207.
    11. Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar & Chowdhury, Hasibul & Han, Hien Duc, 2021. "CEO centrality and stock price crash risk," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    12. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Liao, Shushu & Liu, Yangke, 2021. "Married CEOs and Stock Price Crash Risk," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/09, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    13. Jebran, Khalil & Chen, Shihua & Ye, Yan & Wang, Chengqi, 2019. "Confucianism and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. Wen, Fenghua & Xu, Longhao & Ouyang, Guangda & Kou, Gang, 2019. "Retail investor attention and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Zuo, Jingjing & Qiu, Baoyin & Zhu, Guoyiming & Lei, Guangyong, 2023. "Local speculative culture and stock price crash risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Wang, Xiaoxiao & Liu, Haiming, 2022. "The impact of rollover restriction on stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Li, Jie & Wang, Lidan & Zhou, Zhong-Qiang & Zhang, Yongjie, 2021. "Monitoring or tunneling? Information interaction among large shareholders and the crash risk of the stock price," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Leilei Gu & Jinyu Liu & Yuchao Peng, 2022. "Locality Stereotype, CEO Trustworthiness and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 175(4), pages 773-797, February.
    19. Choi, Young Mok & Park, Kunsu, 2022. "Zero-leverage policy and stock price crash risk: Evidence from Korea," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Jin, Hong-min & Su, Zhong-qin & Wang, Lu & Xiao, Zuoping, 2022. "Do academic independent directors matter? Evidence from stock price crash risk," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 1129-1148.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Left-tail risk; Accounting information; Financial statement analysis; Market efficiency; Crash risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:58:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-021-01036-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.