IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/revdev/v25y2022i2d10.1007_s11147-022-09185-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil futures volatility smiles in 2020: Why the bachelier smile is flatter

Author

Listed:
  • Roza Galeeva

    (NYU Tandon School of Engineering)

  • Ehud Ronn

    (University of Texas)

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the response of the oil-futures option market to the onset of severe conditions in the aftermath of Feb. 15, 2020. Motivated in part by the decline of the WTI futures contract into negative territory on April 20, 2020, for the derivative market on oil futures we consider an analytical contrast between the traditional Black model and its long-ago predecessor, the Bachelier model. Under 2020 crash conditions, the Bachelier model performs better than Black, displaying a significantly flatter vol smile. Based in part on previous published research for short-dated maturities , the rationale for this difference is built on the contrast between between implied Black and Bachelier volatilities. Other than for extreme strikes and high Black vols, we show that the rapport works well in a wider range of maturities and volatilities. Using options data over the year 2020, we explore a notion of normalized strike to measure quantitatively the vol skew.

Suggested Citation

  • Roza Galeeva & Ehud Ronn, 2022. "Oil futures volatility smiles in 2020: Why the bachelier smile is flatter," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 173-187, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:25:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11147-022-09185-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11147-022-09185-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11147-022-09185-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11147-022-09185-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean‐Michel Courtault & Yuri Kabanov & Bernard Bru & Pierre Crépel & Isabelle Lebon & Arnaud Le Marchand, 2000. "Louis Bachelier on the Centenary of Théorie de la Spéculation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 339-353, July.
    2. Marco Avellaneda & Sasha Stoikov, 2008. "High-frequency trading in a limit order book," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 217-224.
    3. Bo Zhao & Stewart Hodges, 2013. "Parametric modeling of implied smile functions: a generalized SVI model," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 53-77, April.
    4. Michael Roper & Marek Rutkowski, 2009. "On The Relationship Between The Call Price Surface And The Implied Volatility Surface Close To Expiry," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04), pages 427-441.
    5. Carr, Peter & Madan, Dilip B., 2005. "A note on sufficient conditions for no arbitrage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 125-130, September.
    6. Cyril Grunspan, 2011. "Asymptotic Expansions of the Lognormal Implied Volatility : A Model Free Approach," Papers 1112.1652, arXiv.org.
    7. Bernard Dumas & Jeff Fleming & Robert E. Whaley, 1998. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2059-2106, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elisa Al`os & Eulalia Nualart & Makar Pravosud, 2023. "On the implied volatility of European and Asian call options under the stochastic volatility Bachelier model," Papers 2308.15341, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Itkin, Andrey, 2015. "To sigmoid-based functional description of the volatility smile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 264-291.
    2. silvia Muzzioli & Alessio Ruggieri, 2013. "Option Implied Trees and Implied Moments," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0015, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. repec:mod:depeco:0015 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hélyette Geman & Dilip B. Madan & Marc Yor, 2007. "Probing Option Prices for Information," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 115-131, March.
    5. Pascal François & Rémi Galarneau‐Vincent & Geneviève Gauthier & Frédéric Godin, 2022. "Venturing into uncharted territory: An extensible implied volatility surface model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1912-1940, October.
    6. Cristian Homescu, 2011. "Implied Volatility Surface: Construction Methodologies and Characteristics," Papers 1107.1834, arXiv.org.
    7. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    8. Cyril Grunspan & Joris van der Hoeven, 2017. "Effective asymptotic analysis for finance," Working Papers hal-01573621, HAL.
    9. Xu, Wei & Šević, Aleksandar & Šević, Željko, 2022. "Implied volatility surface construction for commodity futures options traded in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Cyril Grunspan & Joris van der Hoeven, 2020. "Effective asymptotic analysis for finance," Post-Print hal-01573621, HAL.
    11. Hirbod Assa & Mostafa Pouralizadeh & Abdolrahim Badamchizadeh, 2019. "Sound Deposit Insurance Pricing Using a Machine Learning Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-18, April.
    12. Beer, Simone & Braun, Alexander, 2022. "Market-consistent valuation of natural catastrophe risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    13. Cyril Grunspan, 2011. "A Note on the Equivalence between the Normal and the Lognormal Implied Volatility : A Model Free Approach," Papers 1112.1782, arXiv.org.
    14. Campi, Luciano & Zabaljauregui, Diego, 2020. "Optimal market making under partial information with general intensities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104612, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Carol Alexandra & Leonardo M. Nogueira, 2005. "Optimal Hedging and Scale Inavriance: A Taxonomy of Option Pricing Models," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2005-10, Henley Business School, University of Reading, revised Nov 2005.
    16. Jun, Doobae & Ku, Hyejin, 2015. "Static hedging of chained-type barrier options," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 317-327.
    17. Kearney, Fearghal & Shang, Han Lin & Sheenan, Lisa, 2019. "Implied volatility surface predictability: The case of commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Hauser, Shmuel & Kedar-Levy, Haim & Milo, Orit, 2022. "Price discovery during parallel stocks and options preopening: Information distortion and hints of manipulation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    19. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Eric Renault, 2000. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," Working Papers 2000-57, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    20. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
    21. Chia-Lin Chang & Tai-Lin Hsieh & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Connecting VIX and Stock Index ETF," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-010/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Jan 2017.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:25:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11147-022-09185-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.