IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/pubcho/v46y1985i2p215-220.html

The political timing of errors in inflation forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • John Hill
  • Scott Smith

Abstract

Errors in inflation forecasts do not display a regular electoral rhythm over the entire post-war period. These results are consistent with the work of McCallum (1978) who explored a sample of similar length and failed to find an electoral pattern in unemployment rates. However, if unanticipated inflation is regarded as a lagging indicator of policy effectiveness, then the data do suggest that three of the four most recent administrations have enjoyed a certain success in manufacturing a pre-election upturn. The data also show a significant tendency for low popularity ratings to have been followed by a rise in unexpected inflation. For Democratic administrations, this response was no greater when voter disapproval was perceived in an election year than when it was observed over the general course of the Presidential term. For Republican administrations, however, there was more of a response in unexpected inflation to popularity ratings in an election year. Copyright Martinus Nijhoff Publishers 1985

Suggested Citation

  • John Hill & Scott Smith, 1985. "The political timing of errors in inflation forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 215-220, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:46:y:1985:i:2:p:215-220
    DOI: 10.1007/BF00179742
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF00179742
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/BF00179742?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leroy Laney & Thomas Willett, 1983. "Presidential politics, budget deficits, and monetary policy in the United States; 1960–1976," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 53-69, January.
    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    3. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "An Empirical Study of Politico-Economic Interaction in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 174-183, May.
    4. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
    5. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hassan, Sherif Maher, 2016. "A Historical Retrieval of the Methods and Functions of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 75648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Duo Qin, 2010. "Modelling of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 661, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    4. Thierry Warin, 2006. "From Full Employment to the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Survey," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0601, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    5. Tito Belchior Silva Moreira & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Mario Jorge Mendonça & Adolfo Sachsida, 2016. "An Evaluation of the Non-Neutrality of Money," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    7. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777, August.
    8. Nitzan, Jonathan, 1990. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Inflation and Unemployment," EconStor Preprints 157850, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Jorge Andrés Tamayo, 2008. "La tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia y sus determinantes," Borradores de Economia 491, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen & Nouriel Roubini, 1992. "Macroeconomic Policy And Elections In Oecd Democracies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, March.
    12. Ștefan George & Paraschiv Anca & Volintiru Clara, 2022. "Alternative Unemployment Rates in Romania," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 1491-1504, August.
    13. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "Inflation, output and unemployment trade-offs in Sub-Saharan Africa countries," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 140-159, May.
    14. David Kiefer, 2005. "Partisan stabilization policy and voter control," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 115-132, January.
    15. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2019. "Trends and fads in macroeconomic dynamics," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 179-197, December.
    16. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    17. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," Working Paper Series 124, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. Andrés Felipe Giraldo Palomino, 2010. "Aspectos institucionales de la Banca Central en Colombia (1963-2007)," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    19. Fredrik Carlsen, 2006. "Election cycles, party ideology and incumbent popularity: theory and evidence for OECD economies," Working Paper Series 7906, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    20. Haldane, Andrew & Quah, Danny, 1999. "UK Phillips curves and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 259-278, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:46:y:1985:i:2:p:215-220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.