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Causality testing of the popularity function: An empirical investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1971–1982

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  • Gebhard Kirchgässner

Abstract

Relying on Allensbach and Infratest data, it is asked if there is a relation between the perception of the general economic situation and the voting intention. Modern time series techniques are employed: Box-Jenkins analysis and Granger causality tests. The test results as well as ex post predictions show that voting intentions are strongly influenced by the perceived economic situation. Thus, the null hypothesis of no relationship between the variables can not only be rejected by using classical econometric methods, as is done in previous studies, but also by employing modern time series procedures. Copyright Martinus Nijhoff Publishers 1985

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  • Gebhard Kirchgässner, 1985. "Causality testing of the popularity function: An empirical investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1971–1982," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 155-173, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:45:y:1985:i:2:p:155-173
    DOI: 10.1007/BF00215062
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    1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April.
    2. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-167, May.
    3. Michael Price, J., 1979. "The characterization of instantaneous causality : A correction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 253-256, June.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Sören, 2014. "The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-54.

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