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A New Approach to Probabilistic County Population Forecasting with an Example Application to West Texas

Author

Listed:
  • David A. Swanson

    (Portland State University
    University of Washington
    University of California Riverside)

  • Jeff Tayman

    (Tayman Demographics)

  • Mike Cline

    (North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management)

Abstract

This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts using the 107 counties that make up West Texas as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria routinely applied by state and local demographers. We also report the results of two independent comparisons supporting the argument that our approach is valid. The paper concludes it is well-suited for developing probabilistic population forecasts in the United States and elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Swanson & Jeff Tayman & Mike Cline, 2025. "A New Approach to Probabilistic County Population Forecasting with an Example Application to West Texas," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(4), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:44:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-025-09961-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-025-09961-3
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