IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v42y2023i4d10.1007_s11113-023-09817-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 and All-Cause Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Age Across Five Periods of the Pandemic in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Anneliese N. Luck

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Irma T. Elo

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Samuel H. Preston

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Eugenio Paglino

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Katherine Hempstead

    (Robert Wood Johnson Foundation)

  • Andrew C. Stokes

    (Boston University School of Public Health)

Abstract

Racial/ethnic and age disparities in COVID-19 and all-cause mortality during 2020 are well documented, but less is known about their evolution over time. We examine changes in age-specific mortality across five pandemic periods in the United States from March 2020 to December 2022 among four racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian) for ages 35+. We fit Gompertz models to all-cause and COVID-19 death rates by 5-year age groups and construct age-specific racial/ethnic mortality ratios across an Initial peak (Mar–Aug 2020), Winter peak (Nov 2020–Feb 2021), Delta peak (Aug–Oct 2021), Omicron peak (Nov 2021–Feb 2022), and Endemic period (Mar–Dec 2022). We then compare to all-cause patterns observed in 2019. The steep age gradients in COVID-19 mortality in the Initial and Winter peak shifted during the Delta peak, with substantial increases in mortality at working ages, before gradually returning to an older age pattern in the subsequent periods. We find a disproportionate COVID-19 mortality burden on racial and ethnic minority populations early in the pandemic, which led to an increase in all-cause mortality disparities and a temporary elimination of the Hispanic mortality advantage at certain age groups. Mortality disparities narrowed over time, with racial/ethnic all-cause inequalities during the Endemic period generally returning to pre-pandemic levels. Black and Hispanic populations, however, faced a younger age gradient in all-cause mortality in the Endemic period relative to 2019, with younger Hispanic and Black adults in a slightly disadvantageous position and older Black adults in a slightly advantageous position, relative to before the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Anneliese N. Luck & Irma T. Elo & Samuel H. Preston & Eugenio Paglino & Katherine Hempstead & Andrew C. Stokes, 2023. "COVID-19 and All-Cause Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Age Across Five Periods of the Pandemic in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(4), pages 1-29, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:42:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-023-09817-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-023-09817-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-023-09817-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-023-09817-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2016. "Mortality Inequality: The Good News from a County-Level Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 29-52, Spring.
    2. Jonas Schöley & José Manuel Aburto & Ilya Kashnitsky & Maxi S. Kniffka & Luyin Zhang & Hannaliis Jaadla & Jennifer B. Dowd & Ridhi Kashyap, 2022. "Life expectancy changes since COVID-19," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1649-1659, December.
    3. Fenelon, Andrew, 2013. "Revisiting the Hispanic mortality advantage in the United States: The role of smoking," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-9.
    4. Neil K. Mehta & Irma T. Elo & Michal Engelman & Diane S. Lauderdale & Bert M. Kestenbaum, 2016. "Life Expectancy Among U.S.-born and Foreign-born Older Adults in the United States: Estimates From Linked Social Security and Medicare Data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 1109-1134, August.
    5. Marc A Garcia & Patricia A Homan & Catherine García & Tyson H Brown & Deborah S Carr, 2021. "The Color of COVID-19: Structural Racism and the Disproportionate Impact of the Pandemic on Older Black and Latinx Adults [Racial disparities in mortality in the adult Hispanic population]," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 76(3), pages 75-80.
    6. Michelle S. Wong & Taona P. Haderlein & Anita H. Yuan & Ernest Moy & Kenneth T. Jones & Donna L. Washington, 2021. "Time Trends in Racial/Ethnic Differences in COVID-19 Infection and Mortality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Noreen Goldman & Anne R Pebley & Keunbok Lee & Theresa Andrasfay & Boriana Pratt, 2021. "Racial and ethnic differentials in COVID-19-related job exposures by occupational standing in the US," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-17, September.
    8. Crimmins, E.M. & Kim, J.K. & Alley, D.E. & Karlamangla, A. & Seeman, T., 2007. "Hispanic paradox in biological risk profiles," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(7), pages 1305-1310.
    9. Hélène E. Aschmann & Alicia R. Riley & Ruijia Chen & Yea-Hung Chen & Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo & Andrew C. Stokes & M. Maria Glymour & Mathew V. Kiang, 2022. "Dynamics of racial disparities in all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 119(40), pages 2210941119-, October.
    10. Ruiz, J.M. & Steffen, P. & Smith, T.B., 2013. "Hispanic mortality paradox: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the longitudinal literature," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 103(3), pages 52-60.
    11. Noreen Goldman & Theresa Andrasfay, 2022. "Life expectancy loss among Native Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(9), pages 233-246.
    12. Cantor, Jonathan & Sood, Neeraj & Bravata, Dena M. & Pera, Megan & Whaley, Christopher, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and policy response on health care utilization: Evidence from county-level medical claims and cellphone data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    13. Marcella Alsan & Amitabh Chandra & Kosali Simon, 2021. "The Great Unequalizer: Initial Health Effects of COVID-19 in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 25-46, Summer.
    14. Samuel Preston & Irma Elo & Ira Rosenwaike & Mark Hill, 1996. "African-american mortality at older ages: Results of a matching study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(2), pages 193-209, May.
    15. Diane Lauderdale & Bert Kestenbaum, 2002. "Mortality rates of elderly Asian American populations based on medicare and social security data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(3), pages 529-540, August.
    16. Christopher J L Murray & Sandeep C Kulkarni & Catherine Michaud & Niels Tomijima & Maria T Bulzacchelli & Terrell J Iandiorio & Majid Ezzati, 2006. "Eight Americas: Investigating Mortality Disparities across Races, Counties, and Race-Counties in the United States," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(9), pages 1-12, September.
    17. Mark R Cullen & Clint Cummins & Victor R Fuchs, 2012. "Geographic and Racial Variation in Premature Mortality in the U.S.: Analyzing the Disparities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(4), pages 1-13, April.
    18. Shiro Horiuchi & John Wilmoth, 1998. "Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(4), pages 391-412, November.
    19. Mara Sheftel & Frank W. Heiland, 2018. "Disability crossover: Is there a Hispanic immigrant health advantage that reverses from working to old age?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(7), pages 209-250.
    20. Isaac Sasson, 2021. "Age and COVID-19 mortality: A comparison of Gompertz doubling time across countries and causes of death," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(16), pages 379-396.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Haena & Andrasfay, Theresa & Riley, Alicia & Wu, Qiao & Crimmins, Eileen, 2022. "Do social determinants of health explain racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 infection?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    2. Colen, Cynthia G. & Ramey, David M. & Cooksey, Elizabeth C. & Williams, David R., 2018. "Racial disparities in health among nonpoor African Americans and Hispanics: The role of acute and chronic discrimination," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 167-180.
    3. Neil K. Mehta & Irma T. Elo & Michal Engelman & Diane S. Lauderdale & Bert M. Kestenbaum, 2016. "Life Expectancy Among U.S.-born and Foreign-born Older Adults in the United States: Estimates From Linked Social Security and Medicare Data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 1109-1134, August.
    4. Melissa P L Chan & Robert S Weinhold & Reuben Thomas & Julia M Gohlke & Christopher J Portier, 2015. "Environmental Predictors of US County Mortality Patterns on a National Basis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Mathieu Ichou & Matthew Wallace, 2019. "The Healthy Immigrant Effect: The role of educational selectivity in the good health of migrants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(4), pages 61-94.
    6. Andrasfay, Theresa & Goldman, Noreen, 2020. "Physical functioning and survival: Is the link weaker among Latino and black older adults?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    7. Andrew Fenelon, 2013. "An examination of black/white differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(17), pages 441-472.
    8. Fernando Riosmena & Randall Kuhn & Warren C. Jochem, 2017. "Explaining the Immigrant Health Advantage: Self-selection and Protection in Health-Related Factors Among Five Major National-Origin Immigrant Groups in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 175-200, February.
    9. Dora L. Costa, 2015. "Health and the Economy in the United States from 1750 to the Present," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 503-570, September.
    10. Alexander, Monica, 2018. "Deaths without denominators: using a matched dataset to study mortality patterns in the United States," SocArXiv q79ye, Center for Open Science.
    11. Levchenko, Yuliana, 2021. "Aging into disadvantage: Disability crossover among Mexican immigrants in America," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    12. Norma Fuentes-Mayorga & Alfredo Cuecuecha Mendoza, 2023. "The Most Vulnerable Hispanic Immigrants in New York City: Structural Racism and Gendered Differences in COVID-19 Deaths," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-21, May.
    13. James Banks & Janet Currie & Sonya Krutikova & Kjell G. Salvanes & Hannes Schwandt, 2021. "The Evolution of Mortality Inequality in 11 OECD Countries: Introduction," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(1), pages 9-23, March.
    14. Dora Costa, 2012. "Scarring and Mortality Selection Among Civil War POWs: A Long-Term Mortality, Morbidity, and Socioeconomic Follow-Up," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(4), pages 1185-1206, November.
    15. Hasan, Iftekhar & Krause, Thomas & Manfredonia, Stefano & Noth, Felix, 2022. "Banking market deregulation and mortality inequality," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2022, Bank of Finland.
    16. Feng Huang & Hong Liu, 2023. "The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic and related policy responses on non‐COVID‐19 healthcare utilization in China," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 620-638, March.
    17. Manka Nkimbeng & Alvine Akumbom & Marianne Granbom & Sarah L. Szanton & Tetyana P. Shippee & Roland J. Thorpe & Joseph E. Gaugler, 2022. "Where to Retire? Experiences of Older African Immigrants in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-17, January.
    18. Wolfgang Frimmel & Gerald J. Pruckner, 2024. "The COVID-19 pandemic and health care utilization: Evidence from Austrian register data," Economics working papers 2024-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    19. Ruhnke, Simon A. & Reynolds, Megan M. & Wilson, Fernando A. & Stimpson, Jim P., 2022. "A healthy migrant effect? Estimating health outcomes of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States using machine learning," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    20. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 2021. "Mortality Rates by College Degree Before and During COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:42:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-023-09817-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.