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IMF Support and Inter-Regime Exchange Rate Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Ivo Arnold

    ()

  • Ronald MacDonald

    ()

  • Casper Vries

    ()

Abstract

A widely held notion is that freely floating exchange rates are excessively volatile when moving from fixed to floating exchange rates. We re-examine the data and conclude that the disparity between the fundamentals and exchange rate volatility is more apparent than real, especially when the Deutsche Mark, rather than the dollar, is chosen as the numeraire currency. We argue and demonstrate that in inter-regime comparisons one has to account for certain ‘missing variables’ which compensate for the fundamental variables’ volatility under fixed exchange rates. We show that IMF credit support is a crucial compensating variable.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ivo Arnold & Ronald MacDonald & Casper Vries, 2012. "IMF Support and Inter-Regime Exchange Rate Volatility," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 193-211, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:23:y:2012:i:1:p:193-211
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-011-9231-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
    2. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 660-672, November.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    4. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-698, August.
    5. Marianne Baxter & Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    7. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    8. Duarte, Margarida, 2003. "Why don't macroeconomic quantities respond to exchange rate variability?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 889-913, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Exchange rate regimes; Excess volatility; IMF credit; F31;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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