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Extreme Events and the Copula Pricing of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities

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  • Zhan Liu

    ()

  • Gang-Zhi Fan

    ()

  • Kian Lim

    ()

Abstract

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), as a portfolio-based financial product, have gained great popularity in financial markets. This paper extends Childs, Ott and Riddiough’s (J Financ Quant Anal, 31(4), 581–603, 1996 ) model by proposing a copula-based methodology for pricing CMBS bonds. Default on underlying commercial mortgages within a pool is a crucial risk associated with CMBS transactions. Two important issues associated with such default—extreme events and default dependencies among the mortgages—have been identified to play crucial roles in determining credit risk in the pooled commercial mortgage portfolios. This article pays particular attention to these two issues in pricing CMBS bonds. Our results show the usefulness and potential of copula-based models in pricing CMBS bonds, and the ability of such models to correctly price CMBS tranches of different seniorities. It is also important to sufficiently consider complex default dependence structure and the likelihood of extreme events occurring in pricing various CMBS bonds. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Zhan Liu & Gang-Zhi Fan & Kian Lim, 2009. "Extreme Events and the Copula Pricing of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 327-349, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:3:p:327-349
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-008-9156-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Gang-Zhi Fan & Tien Sing & Seow Ong, 2012. "Default Clustering Risks in Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 110-127, June.
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    10. Childs, Paul D. & Ott, Steven H. & Riddiough, Timothy J., 1996. "The Pricing of Multiclass Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 581-603, December.
    11. Titman, Sheridan D & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Valuing Commercial Mortgages: An Empirical Investigation of the Contingent-Claims Approach to Pricing Risky Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 345-373, June.
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    1. Gang-Zhi Fan & Tien Sing & Seow Ong, 2012. "Default Clustering Risks in Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 110-127, June.

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