IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v38y2009i3p327-349.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme Events and the Copula Pricing of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities

Author

Listed:
  • Zhan Liu
  • Gang-Zhi Fan
  • Kian Lim

Abstract

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), as a portfolio-based financial product, have gained great popularity in financial markets. This paper extends Childs, Ott and Riddiough’s (J Financ Quant Anal, 31(4), 581–603, 1996 ) model by proposing a copula-based methodology for pricing CMBS bonds. Default on underlying commercial mortgages within a pool is a crucial risk associated with CMBS transactions. Two important issues associated with such default—extreme events and default dependencies among the mortgages—have been identified to play crucial roles in determining credit risk in the pooled commercial mortgage portfolios. This article pays particular attention to these two issues in pricing CMBS bonds. Our results show the usefulness and potential of copula-based models in pricing CMBS bonds, and the ability of such models to correctly price CMBS tranches of different seniorities. It is also important to sufficiently consider complex default dependence structure and the likelihood of extreme events occurring in pricing various CMBS bonds. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Zhan Liu & Gang-Zhi Fan & Kian Lim, 2009. "Extreme Events and the Copula Pricing of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 327-349, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:3:p:327-349
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-008-9156-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-008-9156-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-008-9156-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Saunders & Costas Xiouros & Stavros Zenios, 2007. "Credit risk optimization using factor models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 49-77, July.
    2. Michael Young, 2008. "Revisiting Non-normal Real Estate Return Distributions by Property Type in the U.S," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 233-248, February.
    3. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    4. Tien Foo Sing & Seow Eng Ong & Gang-Zhi Fan & Kian Guan Lim, 2005. "Pricing Credit Risk Of Asset-Backed Securitization Bonds In Singapore," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 321-338.
    5. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    6. Gang-Zhi Fan & Tien Sing & Seow Ong, 2012. "Default Clustering Risks in Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 110-127, June.
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    8. Richard A. Graff & Adrian Harrington & Michael S. Young, 1997. "The Shape of Australian Real Estate Return Distributions and Comparisons to the United States," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 291-308.
    9. Childs, Paul D. & Ott, Steven H. & Riddiough, Timothy J., 1996. "The Pricing of Multiclass Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 581-603, December.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:345-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    12. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:2:p:233-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    14. Yannick Malevergne & Didier Sornette, 2006. "Extreme Financial Risks : From Dependence to Risk Management," Post-Print hal-02298069, HAL.
    15. Young, Michael S & Graff, Richard A, 1995. "Real Estate Is Not Normal: A Fresh Look at Real Estate Return Distributions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 225-259, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qiming Zhang & Linda Yin-nor Tjia & Biyue Wang & Aksel Ersoy, 2021. "Sustainable Construction and Financing—Asset-Backed Securitization of Expressway’s Usufruct with Redeemable Rights," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Gang-Zhi Fan & Tien Sing & Seow Ong, 2012. "Default Clustering Risks in Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 110-127, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Dòzsa & Karel Janda, 2015. "Corporate asset pricing models and debt contracts," CAMA Working Papers 2015-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Zhijian (James) Huang & Yuchen Luo, 2016. "Revisiting Structural Modeling of Credit Risk—Evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS) Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Augusto Castillo, 2004. "Firm and Corporate Bond Valuation: A Simulation Dynamic Programming Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(124), pages 345-360.
    4. Nusrat Jahan, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Credit Spreads: Evidence from Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 22-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    5. Galai, Dan & Raviv, Alon & Wiener, Zvi, 2007. "Liquidation triggers and the valuation of equity and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3604-3620, December.
    6. Vink, Dennis, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of Asset-Backed Securitization," MPRA Paper 10382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2008.
    7. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    8. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
    9. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    10. Maria Stefanova, 2012. "Recovery Risiko in der Kreditportfoliomodellierung," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-8349-4226-5, June.
    11. Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.
    12. Martina Nardon, 2005. "Valuing defaultable bonds: an excursion time approach," Finance 0511015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Yildirim, Yildiray, 2006. "Modeling default risk: A new structural approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 165-172, September.
    14. Elisa Di Febo & Eliana Angelini, 2018. "The Relevance of Market Variables in the CDS Spread Volatility: An Empirical Post-crisis Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(6), pages 1462-1477, December.
    15. Frieda Rikkers & Andre E. Thibeault, 2009. "A Structural form Default Prediction Model for SMEs, Evidence from the Dutch Market," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 13(3-4), pages 229-264, September.
    16. Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 2003. "Valuing Corporate Liabilities," SIFR Research Report Series 15, Institute for Financial Research.
    17. Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Michael, 2012. "Quantifying credit and market risk under Solvency II: Standard approach versus internal model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 649-666.
    18. Viral Acharya & Sergei A. Davydenko & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2012. "Cash Holdings and Credit Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3572-3609.
    19. Hoi Ying Wong & Tsz Wang Choi, 2009. "Estimating default barriers from market information," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 187-196.
    20. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:3:p:327-349. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.