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Extreme Events and the Copula Pricing of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities

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  • Zhan Liu
  • Gang-Zhi Fan
  • Kian Lim

Abstract

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), as a portfolio-based financial product, have gained great popularity in financial markets. This paper extends Childs, Ott and Riddiough’s (J Financ Quant Anal, 31(4), 581–603, 1996 ) model by proposing a copula-based methodology for pricing CMBS bonds. Default on underlying commercial mortgages within a pool is a crucial risk associated with CMBS transactions. Two important issues associated with such default—extreme events and default dependencies among the mortgages—have been identified to play crucial roles in determining credit risk in the pooled commercial mortgage portfolios. This article pays particular attention to these two issues in pricing CMBS bonds. Our results show the usefulness and potential of copula-based models in pricing CMBS bonds, and the ability of such models to correctly price CMBS tranches of different seniorities. It is also important to sufficiently consider complex default dependence structure and the likelihood of extreme events occurring in pricing various CMBS bonds. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Zhan Liu & Gang-Zhi Fan & Kian Lim, 2009. "Extreme Events and the Copula Pricing of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 327-349, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:3:p:327-349
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-008-9156-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tien Foo Sing & Seow Eng Ong & Gang-Zhi Fan & Kian Guan Lim, 2005. "Pricing Credit Risk Of Asset-Backed Securitization Bonds In Singapore," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 321-338.
    2. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    3. Gang-Zhi Fan & Tien Sing & Seow Ong, 2012. "Default Clustering Risks in Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 110-127, June.
    4. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
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    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    9. Childs, Paul D. & Ott, Steven H. & Riddiough, Timothy J., 1996. "The Pricing of Multiclass Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 581-603, December.
    10. Yannick Malevergne & Didier Sornette, 2006. "Extreme Financial Risks : From Dependence to Risk Management," Post-Print hal-02298069, HAL.
    11. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:2:p:233-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Michael Young, 2008. "Revisiting Non-normal Real Estate Return Distributions by Property Type in the U.S," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 233-248, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gang-Zhi Fan & Tien Sing & Seow Ong, 2012. "Default Clustering Risks in Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 110-127, June.
    2. Qiming Zhang & Linda Yin-nor Tjia & Biyue Wang & Aksel Ersoy, 2021. "Sustainable Construction and Financing—Asset-Backed Securitization of Expressway’s Usufruct with Redeemable Rights," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-17, August.

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