IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jgeosy/v27y2025i3d10.1007_s10109-025-00470-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

County-to-county migration modeling in the United States: the effects of data source and model selection

Author

Listed:
  • Philip E. Morefield

    (George Mason University
    U.S. EPA, Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment)

  • Timothy F. Leslie

    (George Mason University)

Abstract

Internal migration plays a critical role in shaping demographic and economic landscapes, yet the ability to model migration flows accurately remains a methodological challenge. This study evaluates the performance of different migration models applied to three key U.S. data sources: the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) migration data, the American Community Survey (ACS), and the Census long-form data. While these datasets provide valuable insights into county-to-county migration, they differ in temporal coverage, flow suppression thresholds, and demographic granularity, each introducing unique challenges to migration modeling. Using a comparative framework, this study assesses the impact of data source selection on the accuracy and bias of widely used migration models, including the gravity model, Poisson regression, and the radiation model. Our findings highlight the trade-offs inherent in each dataset, demonstrating that IRS data yield lower prediction errors in aggregate flow estimates but lack demographic specificity, whereas ACS and Census data offer richer demographic detail and capture a larger number of distinct migration streams, though they may introduce noise due to small-flow estimates and suppression thresholds for confidentiality. The results underscore the importance of aligning data selection with research objectives and contribute to broader discussions on best practices for migration modeling.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip E. Morefield & Timothy F. Leslie, 2025. "County-to-county migration modeling in the United States: the effects of data source and model selection," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 455-472, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:27:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10109-025-00470-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10109-025-00470-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10109-025-00470-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10109-025-00470-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:27:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10109-025-00470-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.