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Estimating preferences for the performing arts from referendum votes

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  • Katharina E. Hofer

    (University of St.Gallen)

Abstract

The value of the performing arts to the population can be elicited from referendum outcomes. The analyses typically rely on the (strong) assumption of full voter turnout. I show theoretically that when turnout is ignored, coefficients of variables related positively (negatively) to turnout yield upward (downward)-biased coefficients. For an empirical application, I use the example of a 2009 referendum in the Swiss canton of St.Gallen regarding the public financing of the local theater. Taking into account the turnout decision yields statistically but not economically different estimates. Bayesian model averaging suggests that income, old age, political orientation, and travel time to the theater are most closely related to the vote outcome. The analysis is complemented by comparing voter characteristics from post-ballot surveys with municipal characteristics. Voters tend to exhibit characteristics which are positive drivers of support for the referendum. This suggests that support for cultural spending among voters might be larger than among the overall population.

Suggested Citation

  • Katharina E. Hofer, 2019. "Estimating preferences for the performing arts from referendum votes," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 43(3), pages 397-419, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jculte:v:43:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10824-019-09341-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10824-019-09341-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public spending; Referendum; United voting theory; Performing arts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General

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