IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jbioec/v23y2021i1d10.1007_s10818-021-09310-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey E. Harris

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Eisner Health)

Abstract

We observed wide variation in the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 300 communities making up Los Angeles County, the largest county by population in the United States. The surge in incidence from October 19, 2020 to January 10, 2021, accounting for two-thirds of all confirmed cases since the start of the epidemic, was concentrated in communities with a high prevalence of multi-generational households. This indicator of household structure was a more important predictor of the surge in incidence than the prevalence of households with low income or with at least one high-risk worker. Based upon a spatial adaptation of the standard SIR model, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19, adjusted for underascertainment of both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, ranged from under 10% in low multi-generational communities to over 30% in high multi-generational communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey E. Harris, 2021. "Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 55-83, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jbioec:v:23:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10818-021-09310-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10818-021-09310-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10818-021-09310-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10818-021-09310-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For," NBER Working Papers 27166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Harris, Jeffrey E., 2020. "COVID-19, bar crowding, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court: A non-linear tale of two counties," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Aparicio Fenoll, Ainoa & Grossbard, Shoshana, 2020. "Intergenerational residence patterns and Covid-19 fatalities in the EU and the US," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Xingjie Hao & Shanshan Cheng & Degang Wu & Tangchun Wu & Xihong Lin & Chaolong Wang, 2020. "Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7821), pages 420-424, August.
    5. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1019-1037, December.
    6. Chad Cotti & Bryan Engelhardt & Joshua Foster & Erik Nesson & Paul Niekamp, 2021. "The relationship between in‐person voting and COVID‐19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 760-777, October.
    7. Albert Esteve & Iñaki Permanyer & Diederik Boertien & James W. Vaupel, 2020. "National age and coresidence patterns shape COVID-19 vulnerability," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(28), pages 16118-16118, July.
    8. Luis Orea & Inmaculada C. Álvarez, 2020. "How effective has been the Spanish lockdown to battle COVID-19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces," Working Papers 2020-03, FEDEA.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    10. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Correction to: Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1039-1039, December.
    12. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Geospatial Analysis of the September 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak at the University of Wisconsin – Madison: Did a Cluster of Local Bars Play a Critical Role?," NBER Working Papers 28132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sean L. Wu & Andrew N. Mertens & Yoshika S. Crider & Anna Nguyen & Nolan N. Pokpongkiat & Stephanie Djajadi & Anmol Seth & Michelle S. Hsiang & John M. Colford & Art Reingold & Benjamin F. Arnold & Al, 2020. "Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Christopher J. Cronin & William N. Evans, 2020. "Private Precaution and Public Restrictions: What Drives Social Distancing and Industry Foot Traffic in the COVID-19 Era?," NBER Working Papers 27531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cristini, Annalisa & Trivin, Pedro, 2022. "Close encounters during a pandemic: Social habits and inter-generational links in the first two waves of COVID-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    2. Rodier, Caroline PhD & Horn, Abigail PhD & Zhang, Yunwan MSc & Kaddoura, Ihab PhD & Müller, Sebastian MSc, 2023. "Effectiveness of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Avert the Second COVID-19 Surge in Los Angeles County: A Simulation Study," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5f78h654, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    3. Pensieroso, Luca & Sommacal, Alessandro & Spolverini, Gaia, 2023. "Intergenerational coresidence and the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Mullachery, Pricila H. & Li, Ran & Melly, Steven & Kolker, Jennifer & Barber, Sharrelle & Diez Roux, Ana V. & Bilal, Usama, 2022. "Inequities in spatial accessibility to COVID-19 testing in 30 large US cities," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Geospatial Analysis of the September 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak at the University of Wisconsin – Madison: Did a Cluster of Local Bars Play a Critical Role?," NBER Working Papers 28132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cristini, Annalisa & Trivin, Pedro, 2022. "Close encounters during a pandemic: Social habits and inter-generational links in the first two waves of COVID-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    3. Aparicio Fenoll, Ainoa & Grossbard, Shoshana, 2020. "Intergenerational residence patterns and Covid-19 fatalities in the EU and the US," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Andrew G. Atkeson & Karen Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2021. "Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 356-360, May.
    5. Ewen Gallic & Michel Lubrano & Pierre Michel, 2021. "Optimal lockdowns: Analysing the efficiency of sanitary policies in Europe during the first wave," Working Papers halshs-03145861, HAL.
    6. Jacek Rothert, 2021. "Optimal federal transfers during uncoordinated response to a pandemic," GRAPE Working Papers 58, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    7. Pensieroso, Luca & Sommacal, Alessandro & Spolverini, Gaia, 2023. "Intergenerational coresidence and the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Michèle Belot & Syngjoo Choi & Egon Tripodi & Eline van den Broek-Altenburg & Julian C. Jamison & Nicholas W. Papageorge, 2021. "Unequal consequences of Covid 19: representative evidence from six countries," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 769-783, September.
    9. Ewen Gallic & Michel Lubrano & Pierre Michel, 2021. "Optimal lockdowns: Analysing the efficiency of sanitary policies in Europe during the first wave," Working Papers halshs-03145861, HAL.
    10. Harris, Jeffrey E., 2020. "COVID-19, bar crowding, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court: A non-linear tale of two counties," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Constanza Fosco & Felipe Zurita, 2021. "Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Kumar, Anand & Priya, Bhawna & Srivastava, Samir K., 2021. "Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 76-94.
    13. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Cynthia Fan Yang, 2022. "Matching theory and evidence on Covid‐19 using a stochastic network SIR model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1204-1229, September.
    15. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    16. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of mobility on COVID-19 in the US: targeted lockdowns based on income and poverty," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(1), pages 18-36, April.
    17. Shami, Labib & Lazebnik, Teddy, 2022. "Economic aspects of the detection of new strains in a multi-strain epidemiological–mathematical model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).
    18. Adolfo Rubinstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2022. "An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina," Working Papers 197, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    19. Nikhil Agarwal & Andrew Komo & Chetan A. Patel & Parag A. Pathak & M. Utku Ünver, 2021. "The Trade-off Between Prioritization and Vaccination Speed Depends on Mitigation Measures," NBER Working Papers 28519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ainoa Aparicio & Shoshana Grossbard, 2021. "Are COVID fatalities in the US higher than in the EU, and if so, why?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 307-326, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jbioec:v:23:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10818-021-09310-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.