IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nas/journl/v117y2020p16118-16118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

National age and coresidence patterns shape COVID-19 vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Albert Esteve

    (Center for Demographic Studies, Centres de Recerca de Catalunya, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain; Geography Department, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain)

  • Iñaki Permanyer

    (Center for Demographic Studies, Centres de Recerca de Catalunya, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain)

  • Diederik Boertien

    (Center for Demographic Studies, Centres de Recerca de Catalunya, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain)

  • James W. Vaupel

    (Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, 5000 Odense, Denmark)

Abstract

Based on harmonized census data from 81 countries, we estimate how age and coresidence patterns shape the vulnerability of countries’ populations to outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We estimate variation in deaths arising due to a simulated random infection of 10% of the population living in private households and subsequent within-household transmission of the virus. The age structures of European and North American countries increase their vulnerability to COVID-related deaths in general. The coresidence patterns of elderly persons in Africa and parts of Asia increase these countries’ vulnerability to deaths induced by within-household transmission of COVID-19. Southern European countries, which have aged populations and relatively high levels of intergenerational coresidence, are, all else equal, the most vulnerable to outbreaks of COVID-19. In a second step, we estimate to what extent avoiding primary infections for specific age groups would prevent subsequent deaths due to within-household transmission of the virus. Preventing primary infections among the elderly is the most effective in countries with small households and little intergenerational coresidence, such as France, whereas confining younger age groups can have a greater impact in countries with large and intergenerational households, such as Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert Esteve & Iñaki Permanyer & Diederik Boertien & James W. Vaupel, 2020. "National age and coresidence patterns shape COVID-19 vulnerability," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(28), pages 16118-16118, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:16118-16118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pnas.org/content/117/28/16118.full
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2021. "Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 55-83, April.
    2. David A. Sánchez-Páez, 2022. "Effects of income inequality on COVID-19 infections and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic: Evidence from European countries," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 85-106.
    3. Cristini, Annalisa & Trivin, Pedro, 2022. "Close encounters during a pandemic: Social habits and inter-generational links in the first two waves of COVID-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    4. Bahnsen, Lewe & Wild, Frank, 2021. "Europäische Gesundheitssysteme in der COVID-19-Pandemie: Ein vergleichender Überblick," WIP-Analysen Juli 2021, WIP – Wissenschaftliches Institut der PKV.
    5. Giorgi, Julien & Boertien, Diederik, 2020. "The potential impact of co-residence structures on socio-demographic inequalities in COVID-19 mortality," SocArXiv 84ygx, Center for Open Science.
    6. Arpino, Bruno & Pasqualini, Marta & Bordone, Valeria & Solé-Auró, Aïda, 2020. "Indirect consequences of COVID-19 on people’s lives. Findings from an on-line survey in France, Italy and Spain," SocArXiv 4sfv9, Center for Open Science.
    7. Ugofilippo Basellini & Carlo Giovanni Camarda, 2020. "Modelling COVID-19 mortality at the regional level in Italy," Working Papers axq0sudakgkzhr-blecv, French Institute for Demographic Studies.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:16118-16118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eric Cain (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.pnas.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.