IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/empiri/v52y2025i1d10.1007_s10663-024-09626-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal fiscal policy in times of uncertainty: a stochastic control approach

Author

Listed:
  • Reinhard Neck

    (Alpen-Adria-Universität Klagenfurt)

  • Dmitri Blueschke

    (Alpen-Adria-Universität Klagenfurt)

  • Viktoria Blueschke-Nikolaeva

    (Alpen-Adria-Universität Klagenfurt)

Abstract

This paper deals with the possibilities of designing optimal fiscal policy under uncertainty. First, different forms of uncertainty are discussed for economic policy analysis and design. For dynamic models under uncertainty, a stochastic optimum control framework is presented. Algorithms for nonlinear models are briefly reviewed: OPTCON1 for open-loop control, OPTCON2 for open-loop feedback (passive learning) control, and OPTCON3 for dual control with active learning. The OPTCON algorithms determine approximately optimal fiscal policies. The results from calculating these policies for a small macroeconometric model for Slovenia serve to illustrate the applicability of the OPTCON algorithms and compare their solutions. The results show that the most sophisticated and time intensive active-learning solution, which requires the use of an extremely small and simple model of the economy, is not necessarily superior to the simpler solutions. For actual policy design problems and policy advice, it will often be better to neglect the stochastic uncertainty and use deterministic optimization instead, especially since in practice, the most important forms of uncertainty are not stochastic but relate to the model specification, the behaviour of other policy makers or other agents, or fundamental uncertainty that cannot be dealt with at all.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhard Neck & Dmitri Blueschke & Viktoria Blueschke-Nikolaeva, 2025. "Optimal fiscal policy in times of uncertainty: a stochastic control approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 99-120, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:52:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-024-09626-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09626-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10663-024-09626-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10663-024-09626-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blueschke-Nikolaeva, V. & Blueschke, D. & Neck, R., 2012. "Optimal control of nonlinear dynamic econometric models: An algorithm and an application," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3230-3240.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
    3. V. Blueschke-Nikolaeva & D. Blueschke & R. Neck, 2020. "OPTCON3: An Active Learning Control Algorithm for Nonlinear Quadratic Stochastic Problems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 145-162, June.
    4. Yaakov Bar-Shalom & Edison Tse, 1976. "Caution, Probing, and the Value of Information in the Control of Uncertain Systems," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 3, pages 323-337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    6. Amman, Hans M & Kendrick, David A, 1995. "Nonconvexities in Stochastic Control Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 455-475, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. V. Blueschke-Nikolaeva & D. Blueschke & R. Neck, 2020. "OPTCON3: An Active Learning Control Algorithm for Nonlinear Quadratic Stochastic Problems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 145-162, June.
    2. Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August.
    3. Samuel Bowles & Wendy Carlin, 2020. "What Students Learn in Economics 101: Time for a Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 176-214, March.
    4. D. Blueschke & V. Blueschke-Nikolaeva & R. Neck, 2013. "Stochastic Control of Linear and Nonlinear Econometric Models: Some Computational Aspects," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 107-118, June.
    5. Bond, Craig A., 2008. "On the Potential Use of Adaptive Control Methods for Improving Adaptive Natural Resource Management," Working Papers 108721, Colorado State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    6. Marco Tucci, 2006. "Understanding the Difference Between Robust Control and Optimal Control in a Linear Discrete-Time System with Time-Varying Parameters," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 533-558, June.
    7. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    8. Peter John Robinson & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Fujin Zhou, 2021. "An experimental study of charity hazard: The effect of risky and ambiguous government compensation on flood insurance demand," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 275-318, December.
    9. R. Anton Braun & Yuichiro Waki, 2006. "Monetary Policy During Japan'S Lost Decade," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 324-344, June.
    10. Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira & Frédéric Dufourt, 2013. "On Stabilization Policy in Sunspot-Driven Oligopolistic Economies," AMSE Working Papers 1337, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 30 Jun 2013.
    11. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1978. "Optimal demand policies against stagflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 736-782, December.
    12. Pierre Mabille, 2019. "Aggregate Precautionary Savings Motives," 2019 Meeting Papers 344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2005. "Price- and wage- inflation targeting: variations on a theme by Erceg, Henderson, and Levin," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 181-215.
    14. Niklas Gadatsch & Josef Hollmayr & Nikolai Stähler, 2019. "Thoughts on a Fiscal Union in EMU," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 360-384, November.
    15. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 199-228, August.
    16. Guido Sandleris & Filippo Taddei, 2007. "Indexed Sovereign Debt: a Survey and a Framework of Analysis," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 66, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    17. Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Financial crises and exchange rate policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 202-215.
    18. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    19. Peter J. Stemp, 1991. "Optimal Weights in a Check‐List of Monetary Indicators," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(1), pages 1-13, March.
    20. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2013. "European economic governance: the Berlin–Washington Consensus," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(3), pages 479-496.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:52:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-024-09626-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.