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An Optimal Mortgage Refinancing Strategy with Stochastic Interest Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoxia Wu

    (South University of Science and Technology of China
    University of Texas at Austin)

  • Dejun Xie

    (South University of Science and Technology of China
    Xi’an Jiaotong Liverpool University)

  • David A. Edwards

    (University of Delaware)

Abstract

This article puts forward a framework for assessing the optimal refinancing strategy in continuous time when the interest rate is stochastic and follows a Vasicek model. The optimal refinancing time is obtained by minimizing the conditional expectation of the discounted total payment. A moment generating function is used to derive a closed-form approximation to the refinancing function with infinite maturity under the Vasicek model. The approximation is studied both analytically and numerically. The results indicate three different types of behaviour in the refinancing function, depending on the underlying parameters in the model. Two types indicate optimal refinancing in finite time. We outline a strategy by which a borrower can continually evaluate whether to refinance. By providing a systematic way to evaluate the likelihood of refinancing, these results should be of interest to those trading mortgage-backed securities.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoxia Wu & Dejun Xie & David A. Edwards, 2019. "An Optimal Mortgage Refinancing Strategy with Stochastic Interest Rate," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1353-1375, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:53:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10614-018-9809-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-018-9809-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Kalotay & Deane Yang & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2004. "An Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model For Mortgages And Mortgage-Backed Securities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(08), pages 949-978.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    3. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & David I. Laibson, 2013. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed‐Form Solution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 591-622, June.
    4. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," NBER Working Papers 10422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Andrew H. Chen & David C. Ling, 1989. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Stochastic Interest Rates," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(3), pages 278-299, September.
    6. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    7. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:591-622 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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