IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the Interest-Rate Risk of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Loans



This paper evaluates the interest-rate risk inherent in an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) with sporadic rate adjustments and possibly binding periodic and life-of-loan rate change constraints. Simulation analysis forecasts ARM cash flows, determines the probability that constraints will hold, and partitions the loan into fixed and variable components. Simulation parameters are then altered to measure the impact of changes in contract terms and market conditions on the interest-rate risk of a typical ARM loan. Interest-rate sensitivity is found to be significantly less than that of fixed-rate loans and remarkably insensitive to changes in loan margins or initial loan rates after the first few years of an ARM's life. Therefore, it is not surprising that lenders have used these features to lure borrowers to ARMs. Periodic rate change limits and volatility in the underlying index are the only factors that influence the interest-rate risk of an existing ARM in a substantive way.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Chiang & Thomas F. Gosnell & Andrea J. Heuson, 1997. "Evaluating the Interest-Rate Risk of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Loans," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 77-94.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:13:n:1:1997:p:77-94

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dhillon, Upinder S & Shilling, James D & Sirmans, C F, 1987. "Choosing between Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgages: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 260-267, May.
    2. James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Walter J. Muller & James F. Epperson, 1990. "The Valuation and Analysis of Adjustable Rate Mortgages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(12), pages 1417-1431, December.
    3. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Houston, Joel F & Sa-Aadu, J & Shilling, James D, 1991. "Teaser Rates in Conventional Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM) Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 19-31, March.
    5. Stephen A. Buser & Patric H. Hendershott & Anthony B. Sanders, 1985. "Pricing Life-of-Loan Rate Caps on Default-Free Adjustable-Rate Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 248-260.
    6. Tucker, Michael, 1991. "Comparing Present Value Cost Differentials between Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Loans: A Mortgage Simulation," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 447-458, August.
    7. Capone, Charles A, Jr & Cunningham, Donald F, 1992. "Estimating the Marginal Contribution of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Selection to Termination Probabilities in a Nested Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 333-356, December.
    8. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
    9. Heuson, Andrea Jane, 1989. "Institutional Disparities in the Pricing of Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 31-45, February.
    10. Cunningham, Donald F & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1990. " The Relative Termination Experience of Adjustable to Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1687-1703, December.
    11. Haensly, Paul J & Springer, Thomas M & Waller, Neil G, 1993. "Duration and the Price Behavior of Fixed-Rate Level Payment Mortgages: An Analytical Investigation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 157-166, March.
    12. Brueckner, Jan K & Follain, James R, 1988. "The Rise and Fall of the ARM: An Econometric Analysis of Mortgage Choice," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 93-102, February.
    13. Anderson, Gary A & Barber, Joel R & Chang, Chun-Hao, 1993. "Prepayment Risk and the Duration of Default-Free Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Zivney, Terry L. & Luft, Carl F., 1999. "Hedging individual mortgage risk," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 101-115.
    2. Chow, Ying-Foon & Huang, Charles & Liu, Ming, 2000. "Valuation of adjustable rate mortgages with automatic stretching maturity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(11), pages 1809-1829, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:13:n:1:1997:p:77-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.