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Modelos de tasas de interes en Chile: una revision

  • Hortensia Fontanals Albiol
  • Sergio Zuniga

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

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    In this work we revise Levels Models of the Interest Rates in Chile. In addition to the traditional Level Models by Chan, Karoly, Longstaff and Sanders (1992) in the USA, and Parisi (1998) in Chile, by Maximun Likelihood method we allow that the conditional volatility also include the unexpected information processes (GARCH model) and also that the volatility be function of the level of the interest rate (TVP-LEVEL model) as in Brenner, Harjes and Kroner (1996). For this we use market yields from the Bonos de Reconocimiento instead the monthly average yields from PDBC auctions, and enlarging the size and the frequency from the sample to 4 weekly yields with different terms to maturity: 1 year, 5 years, 10 years and 15 years. The main results from the study can be summarized in that the volatility of the unexpected changes in the rates depends positively on the level of the rates, especially in the TVP-LEVEL model. We obtain mean reversion evidence, such that the increments in the interest rates were not independent, contrary to that obtained by Brenner et al. in the USA. The LEVELS models are not able to adjust appropiately the volatility in comparison to an GARCH(1,1) model, and finally, the TVP-LEVEL model does not overcome the results from the GARCH(1,1) model.

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    Paper provided by Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 87.

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    Length: 23 pages
    Date of creation: 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bar:bedcje:200287
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Espai de Recerca en Economia, Facultat de Ciències Econòmiques. Tinent Coronel Valenzuela, Num 1-11 08034 Barcelona. Spain.
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    1. BROZE, Laurence & SCAILLET, Olivier & ZAKOIANÂ , Jean-Michel, 1993. "Testing for Continuous-Time Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," CORE Discussion Papers 1993031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. " An Analysis of Variable Rate Loan Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 389-403, May.
    3. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
    4. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
    5. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1980. "Analyzing Convertible Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 907-929, November.
    6. Jamshidian, Farshid, 1989. " An Exact Bond Option Formula," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 205-09, March.
    7. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
    8. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
    9. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
    10. Franco Parisi, 1998. "Tasas de Interés Nominal de Corto Plazo en Chile: Una Comparación Empírica de sus Modelos," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(105), pages 161-182.
    11. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
    12. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    13. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
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