Time-simultaneous prediction band for a time series
I propose principles and methods for the construction of a time-simultaneous prediction band for a univariate time series. The methods are entirely based on a learning sample of time trajectories, and make no parametric assumption about its distribution. Hence, the methods are general and widely applicable. The expected coverage probability of a band can be estimated by a bootstrap procedure. The estimate is likely to be less than the nominal level. Expected lack of coverage can be compensated for by increasing the coverage in the learning sample. Applications to simulated and empirical data illustrate the methods. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 26 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kim, Jae H., 2004. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregression using asymptotically mean-unbiased estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 85-97.
- Bo Yang & John E. Kolassa, 2004. "Smooth and Accurate Multivariate Confidence Regions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 1072-1081, December.
- Clements, Michael P. & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-267.
- Peter Hall, 2004. "Nonparametric confidence intervals for receiver operating characteristic curves," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(3), pages 743-750, September.
- Touhami Abdelkhalek & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1998.
"Statistical Inference For Computable General Equilibrium Models, With Application To A Model Of The Moroccan Economy,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 520-534, November.
- ABDELKHALEK, Touhami & DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy," Cahiers de recherche 9713, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Reeves, Jonathan J., 2005. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for ARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 237-248.
- Thomas H. Scheike & Mei-Jie Zhang, 2003. "Extensions and Applications of the Cox-Aalen Survival Model," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1036-1045, December.
- Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:26:y:2007:i:3:p:171-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.