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Evolving foresight in a small transition economy

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  • Attila Havas

    (UNU|INTECH, Maastricht, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Hungary launched its first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) in 1997. This was a holistic foresight programme, based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey, with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs. The paper discusses why a foresight exercise is relevant to a transition country, then describes what was done (organization, methods and results), and how the process evolved in Hungary. Policy conclusions, methodological lessons and questions for further research are also offered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Attila Havas, 2003. "Evolving foresight in a small transition economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 179-201.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:2-3:p:179-201
    DOI: 10.1002/for.855
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Freeman, Chris, 1994. "The Economics of Technical Change," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 18(5), pages 463-514, October.
    2. Attila Havas, Attila, 2000. "Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Programme," MPRA Paper 79515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Havas, Attila, 1998. "A Long Way to Go: The Hungarian science and technology policy in transition," MPRA Paper 63533, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chris Freeman & Luc Soete, 1997. "The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262061953, April.
    5. Freeman, Chris, 1995. "The 'National System of Innovation' in Historical Perspective," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 19(1), pages 5-24, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ville Brummer & Totti Konnola & Ahti Salo, 2009. "FinnSight 2015 – A Foresight Exercise for the Shaping of National Strategies," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 3(4), pages 56-65.
    2. Attila Havas, 2002. "Does Innovation Policy Matter in a Transition Country? – The case of Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0205, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    3. Ian Belton & Kerstin Cuhls & George Wright, 2022. "A critical evaluation of 42, large‐scale, science and technology foresight Delphi surveys," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), June.
    4. Havas, Attila & Weber, K. Matthias, 2017. "The 'fit' between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system: A framework to explore potential impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 327-337.
    5. Attila Havas, 2002. "Identifying Challenges and Developing Visions - Technology Foresight in Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0206, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    6. Lin, Hao-Chu & Luarn, Pin & Maa, Ren-Horng & Chen, Chao-Wen, 2012. "Adaptive foresight modular design and dynamic adjustment mechanism: Framework and Taiwan case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1583-1591.
    7. Hsin-Ning Su & Pei-Chun Lee, 2010. "Mapping knowledge structure by keyword co-occurrence: a first look at journal papers in Technology Foresight," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 85(1), pages 65-79, October.
    8. K. Matthias Weber & Jennifer Cassingena Harper & Totti Könnölä & Vicente Carabias Barceló, 2012. "Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 153-165, February.
    9. Weber, K. Matthias & Schaper-Rinkel, Petra, 2017. "European sectoral innovation foresight: Identifying emerging cross-sectoral patterns and policy issues," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 240-250.
    10. Attila Havas & K. Matthias Weber, 2016. "The ‘fit’ between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1601, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    11. Totti Könnölä & Karel Haegeman, 2012. "Embedding foresight in transnational research programming," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 191-207, March.
    12. Attila Havas, 2003. "Socio-Economic and Developmental Needs - Focus of Foresight Programmes," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0313, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    13. Havas, Atttila & Weber, K. Matthias, 2017. "The role of foresight in shaping the next production revolution," MPRA Paper 100374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Elizabeth Gibson & Tugrul Daim & Edwin Garces & Marina Dabic, 2018. "Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24.
    15. Shin, Juneseuk & Park, Yongtae, 2007. "Building the national ICT frontier: The case of Korea," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 249-277, June.
    16. Havas, Attila, 2005. "Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight Programmes," MPRA Paper 77791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Attila Havas & Doris Schartinger & Matthias Weber, 2010. "The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 91-104, June.
    18. Havas, Attila, 2011. "Governing policy processes and foresight," MPRA Paper 38119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Attila Havas, 2009. "ERAWATCH Country Report 2008 - An Assessment of Research System and Policies: Hungary," JRC Research Reports JRC50011, Joint Research Centre.
    20. Havas, Attila, 2003. "The relevance of foresight for accession countries and possibilities for co-operation," MPRA Paper 49562, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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