IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/scippl/v39y2012i2p153-165.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

Author

Listed:
  • K. Matthias Weber
  • Jennifer Cassingena Harper
  • Totti Könnölä
  • Vicente Carabias Barceló

Abstract

Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations. This paper identifies three ideal types: external FTA services, the institutionalisation of FTA, and FTA networks, whilst recognising that in practice these types are complementary. In empirical terms this requires further investigation, in order to understand how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts. It is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised FTA can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruptions. Copyright The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Matthias Weber & Jennifer Cassingena Harper & Totti Könnölä & Vicente Carabias Barceló, 2012. "Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 153-165, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:scippl:v:39:y:2012:i:2:p:153-165
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/scipol/scs012
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ales Gnamus, 2009. "Comparative Report on S&T Cooperation of the ERA Countries with Brazil, India and Russia," JRC Research Reports JRC50966, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Ville Brummer & Totti Konnola & Ahti Salo, 2010. "Developing National Priorities for the Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 4(2), pages 44-56.
    3. Ikujiro Nonaka, 1994. "A Dynamic Theory of Organizational Knowledge Creation," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 14-37, February.
    4. Totti Könnölä & Ahti Salo & Cristiano Cagnin & Vicente Carabias & Eeva Vilkkumaa, 2012. "Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 222-231, March.
    5. Mariana Chioncel, 2012. "Research and Innovation Challenges and Policy Responses in Member States," JRC Research Reports JRC66825, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Havas, Attila, 2001. "Evolving foresight in a small transition economy: The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary," MPRA Paper 66347, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2001.
    7. Attila Havas, 2003. "Evolving foresight in a small transition economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 179-201.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Havas, Attila & Weber, K. Matthias, 2017. "The 'fit' between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system: A framework to explore potential impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 327-337.
    2. Bernd Carsten Stahl & Job Timmermans & Catherine Flick, 2017. "Ethics of Emerging Information and Communication Technologies," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 369-381.
    3. Aguirre-Bastos, Carlos & Weber, Matthias K., 2018. "Foresight for shaping national innovation systems in developing economies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 186-196.
    4. Rowe, Emily & Wright, George & Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important ‘weak signals’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 224-235.
    5. Pombo-Juárez, Laura & Könnölä, Totti & Miles, Ian & Saritas, Ozcan & Schartinger, Doris & Amanatidou, Effie & Giesecke, Susanne, 2017. "Wiring up multiple layers of innovation ecosystems: Contemplations from Personal Health Systems Foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 278-288.
    6. Vesnic-Alujevic, Lucia & Nascimento, Susana & Pólvora, Alexandre, 2020. "Societal and ethical impacts of artificial intelligence: Critical notes on European policy frameworks," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(6).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Totti Könnölä & Karel Haegeman, 2012. "Embedding foresight in transnational research programming," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 191-207, March.
    2. Attila Havas & K. Matthias Weber, 2016. "The ‘fit’ between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1601, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    3. Tapinos, E. & Pyper, N., 2018. "Forward looking analysis: Investigating how individuals ‘do’ foresight and make sense of the future," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 292-302.
    4. Havas, Atttila & Weber, K. Matthias, 2017. "The role of foresight in shaping the next production revolution," MPRA Paper 100374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lu, Jinfeng & Dimov, Dimo, 2023. "A system dynamics modelling of entrepreneurship and growth within firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 38(3).
    6. Olunifesi Adekunle Suraj, 2016. "Managing Telecommunications for Development: An Analysis of Intellectual Capital in Nigerian Telecommunication Industry," Journal of Information & Knowledge Management (JIKM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-30, March.
    7. Soufiane Mezzourh & Walid A Nakara, 2009. "Governance and innovation : A Knowledge-based approach [La gouvernance de l'innovation : une approche par la connaissance]," Post-Print halshs-01955966, HAL.
    8. M. Max Evans & Ilja Frissen & Anthony K. P. Wensley, 2018. "Organisational Information and Knowledge Sharing: Uncovering Mediating Effects of Perceived Trustworthiness Using the PROCESS Approach," Journal of Information & Knowledge Management (JIKM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(01), pages 1-29, March.
    9. Chris Kimble & José Braga Vasconcelos & Álvaro Rocha, 2016. "Competence management in knowledge intensive organizations using consensual knowledge and ontologies," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 1119-1130, December.
    10. Maurizio Zollo, 1998. "Strategies or Routines ? Knowledge Codification, Path-Dependence and the Evolution of Post-Acquisition Integration Practices in the U.S. Banking Industry," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-10, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    11. Duniesky Feitó Madrigal & Alejandro Mungaray Lagarda & Michelle Texis Flores, 2016. "Factors associated with learning management in Mexican micro-entrepreneurs," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 32(141), pages 381-386, December.
    12. David Vallat, 2015. "Une alternative au dualisme État-Marché : l’économie collaborative, questions pratiques et épistémologiques," Working Papers halshs-01249308, HAL.
    13. Gaviria-Marin, Magaly & Merigó, José M. & Baier-Fuentes, Hugo, 2019. "Knowledge management: A global examination based on bibliometric analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 194-220.
    14. Christoph P. Kiefer & Pablo Del Río González & Javier Carrillo‐Hermosilla, 2019. "Drivers and barriers of eco‐innovation types for sustainable transitions: A quantitative perspective," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 155-172, January.
    15. Ahammad, Mohammad Faisal & Tarba, Shlomo Yedidia & Liu, Yipeng & Glaister, Keith W., 2016. "Knowledge transfer and cross-border acquisition performance: The impact of cultural distance and employee retention," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 66-75.
    16. Arkadiusz Kijek & Tomasz Kijek, 2019. "Knowledge Spillovers: An Evidence from The European Regions," JOItmC, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, September.
    17. Liuan Wang & Lu (Lucy) Yan & Tongxin Zhou & Xitong Guo & Gregory R. Heim, 2020. "Understanding Physicians’ Online-Offline Behavior Dynamics: An Empirical Study," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 537-555, June.
    18. Karel Haegeman & Nicholas Harrap & John Mark Boden & Nida Kamil Özbolat, 2013. "NETWATCH Policy Brief Series Brief Nº3 - Added value of transnational research programming: lessons from longstanding programme collaborations in Europe," JRC Research Reports JRC82303, Joint Research Centre.
    19. Anders Melander & Tomas Mullern & David Anderssson & Fredrik Elgh & Malin Löfving, 2022. "Bridging the Knowledge Gap in Collaborative Research—in Dialogues We Trust," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 655-677, October.
    20. Schilling, Melissa A. & Green, Elad, 2011. "Recombinant search and breakthrough idea generation: An analysis of high impact papers in the social sciences," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1321-1331.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:scippl:v:39:y:2012:i:2:p:153-165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/spp .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.