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Identifying Challenges and Developing Visions - Technology Foresight in Hungary

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  • Attila Havas

    (Institute of Economics, Hungarian Acedemy of Sciences)

Abstract

TEP, the Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme, was launched in 1997, as the first one in Central and Eastern Europe, to provide inputs to a national strategy by identifying socio-economic challenges and developing broad visions for the future. Specifically, it was aimed at analysing Hungary’s current strengths and weaknesses, developing scenarios (visions) and formulating policy proposals to improve quality of life and the longterm international competitiveness. This presentation first briefly defines the concept and methods of (technology) foresight, and highlights some reasons why it is a useful policy tool, followed by a brief account of the objectives and methods of TEP. Then, summarising the results, Sections 3 and 4 provide an overview of the transition process (institutional changes as well as economic developments) and the current socio-economic challenges, respectively. Changing the time horizon, 3 long-term macro scenarios are discussed in Section 5, together with policy recommendations developed by TEP so as to achieve the most desirable – but still feasible – vision. Section 6 summarises the results of the dissemination and implementation phase of TEP. Finally, the concluding section highlights the benefits of foresight to assist decision-makers; some general difficulties concerning its design, methodologies and implementation of its results; as well as specific Hungarian problems, due to the legacy of planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Attila Havas, 2002. "Identifying Challenges and Developing Visions - Technology Foresight in Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0206, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:0206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Havas, Attila, 2002. "Does innovation policy policy matter? The case of Hungary," MPRA Paper 61180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Freeman, Chris, 1994. "The Economics of Technical Change," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 18(5), pages 463-514, October.
    3. Attila Havas, Attila, 2000. "Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Programme," MPRA Paper 79515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Havas, Attila, 1998. "A Long Way to Go: The Hungarian science and technology policy in transition," MPRA Paper 63533, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Attila Havas, 2003. "Evolving foresight in a small transition economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 179-201.
    6. Janos Kornai, 1995. "The Dilemmas of the Hungarian Economic Policy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1744, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Katalin Balázs & Paul Hare & Ray Oakey, 1990. "The management of research and development in Hungary at the end of the 1980s," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 723-741.
    8. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
    9. Radosevic, Slavo, 1998. "The Transformation of National Systems of Innovation in Eastern Europe: Between Restructuring and Erosion," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 7(1), pages 77-108, March.
    10. Chris Freeman & Luc Soete, 1997. "The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262061953, April.
    11. Freeman, Chris, 1995. "The 'National System of Innovation' in Historical Perspective," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 19(1), pages 5-24, February.
    12. László Csaba, 1998. "Transformation as a Subject of Economic Theory," KOPINT-DATORG Discussion Paper Archive 57, KOPINT DATORG LTD. Economic Research Division.
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