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Analogous Cycles with Lagged Co-movement: U.S. and East Asian Business Cycles

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  • Yamagata, Tatsufumi

Abstract

In selected East Asian economies, the behavior of detrended macroeconomic variables was found to be similar to that observed in the postwar U.S. economy. Consumption and investment are highly procyclical while the balance of trade and the price level are counter-cyclical in most of them. Labor productivity is procyclical in general. The high coherence between U.S. GDP and that of the East Asian economies suggests that business cycles in terms of frequency are also similar between the United States and East Asia. However, the GDP and consumption of East Asian countries do not necessarily co-move well with current U.S. and Japanese GDP and consumption, while East Asian consumption tends to co-move more with lagged U.S. and Japanese consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Yamagata, Tatsufumi, 1998. "Analogous Cycles with Lagged Co-movement: U.S. and East Asian Business Cycles," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO), vol. 36(4), pages 407-439, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:jet:deveco:v:36:y:1998:i:4:p:407-439
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephane Dees & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2011. "The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 573-591, December.
    2. Rahman, Pk. Md. Motiur & Yamagata, Tatsufumi, 2004. "Business Cycles and Seasonal Cycles in Bangladesh," IDE Discussion Papers 1, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; East Asia; United States; Taiwan; Hong Kong; Japan; South Korea; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; 景気; 東アジア; アメリカ合衆国; 台湾; 香港; 日本; 韓国; フィリピン; シンガポール; タイ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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