Prospects and Pitfalls of Statistical Testing: Insights from Replicating the Demographic Prisoner's Dilemma
This paper documents our efforts (and troubles) in replicating Epstein's (1998) demographic prisoner's dilemma model. Confronted with a number of ambiguous descriptions of model features we introduce a method for systematically generating a large number of model replications and testing for their equivalence to the original model. While, qualitatively speaking, a number of our replicated models resemble the results of the original model reasonably well, statistical testing reveals that in quantitative terms our endeavor was only partially successful. This fact hints towards some unstated assumptions regarding the original model. Finally we conduct a number of statistical tests with respect to the influence of certain design choices like the method of updating, the timing of events and the randomization of the activation order. The results of these tests highlight the importance of an explicit documentation of design choices and especially of the timing of events. A central lesson learned from this exercise is that the power of statistical replication analysis is to a large degree determined by the available data.
Volume (Year): 13 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Hales & Juliette Rouchier & Bruce Edmonds, 2003. "Model-To-Model Analysis," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 6(4), pages 5.
- Juliette Rouchier & Claudio Cioffi-Revilla & Gary J. Polhill & Keiki Takadama, 2008. "Progress in Model-To-Model Analysis," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(2), pages 8.
- Robert Axtell & Robert Axelrod & Joshua M. Epstein & Michael D. Cohen, 1995. "Aligning Simulation Models: A Case Study and Results," Working Papers 95-07-065, Santa Fe Institute.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2009-88-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Flaminio Squazzoni)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.