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switching-regime effect of sovereign risk components on housing prices in South African major cities

Author

Listed:
  • Paul-Francois MUZINDUTSI
  • Ntuthuko MBHELE
  • Trayum GOPAL
  • Namishka RAMBARAN
  • Thulisile MTHEMBU
  • Purusha RAMJIYAVAN
  • Fikile DUBE

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the effect of sovereign risk components on housing prices in six major South African cities under switching regimes conditions. Method: The Markov Switching Model was employed to analyse the switching effect of economic, financial and political risk on the property markets in major South African cities. Results: In the bearish regime, the response of property prices to changes in country risk components varies across the cities. In contrast, country risk components do not affect property prices in the bullish regime in all sampled cities. Cape Town has the most volatile housing prices, and each city’s response to changing regimes is asymmetric, with the likelihood of staying longer in the bullish condition than the bearish market condition. Originality: This study is the first to assess the impact of country risk factors on housing prices for South African cities with a specific focus on switching regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul-Francois MUZINDUTSI & Ntuthuko MBHELE & Trayum GOPAL & Namishka RAMBARAN & Thulisile MTHEMBU & Purusha RAMJIYAVAN & Fikile DUBE, 2025. "switching-regime effect of sovereign risk components on housing prices in South African major cities," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 0, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:jaf:journl:v::y:2025:i::n:764
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cup:cbooks:9781108422536 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Thomas Habanabakize & Zandri Dickason, 2022. "Political risk and macroeconomic effect of housing prices in South Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2054525-205, December.
    3. Patricia Alvarez‐Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2006. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov‐Switching Model Estimation," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(1), pages 79-91, March.
    4. Brooks,Chris, 2019. "Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108436823, November.
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    JEL classification:

    • M1 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration
    • N8 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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