IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ist/iujepr/v8y2021i2p211-223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship Between Industrial Production Index, Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in the Turkish Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Haydar Karadag

    (Recep Tayyip Erdogan Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu, Rize, Turkiye)

Abstract

Countries trying to increase their production in the industrial sector wish to have access to cheap energy. However, a rise in oil prices affects the industrial production of countries dependent on oil. Furthermore, as production costs increase, the general level of prices also increases. This study aims to examine the long-term effects of the rise in oil prices on the industrial production index and the CPI in the Turkish economy. Since the study measures the impact of Brent crude oil prices on the industrial production index and CPI for the Turkish economy, it contributes to the literature. In this respect, the study investigated the relationships among the specified variables for the 2010: Q1-2020: Q4 period of the Turkish economy. Phillips-Ouliaris cointegration test and Granger and Bootstrap causality test were used to analyze the relationship among the variables. A long-term relationship was found between the variables. According to the results of both causality tests, it was determined that the rise in oil prices raised the CPI by increasing the cost of industrial production in the Turkish economy. The findings show that oil prices should be monitored closely by actors of economic management.

Suggested Citation

  • Haydar Karadag, 2021. "The Relationship Between Industrial Production Index, Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in the Turkish Economy," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 211-223, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ist:iujepr:v:8:y:2021:i:2:p:211-223
    DOI: 10.26650/JEPR913986
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/249316BBE4E14A9AA9531C2529A72B75
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/jepr/article/the-relationship-between-industrial-production-index-oil-prices-and-consumer-price-index-in-the-turkish-economy
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26650/JEPR913986?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    2. Zhao, Lin & Zhang, Xun & Wang, Shouyang & Xu, Shanying, 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-110.
    3. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    4. Surender Kumar, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Empirical Evidence for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 15-37.
    5. Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul, 2011. "Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8062-8069.
    6. Zhang, Chuanguo & Tu, Xiaohua, 2016. "The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 131-139.
    7. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
    8. Surender Kumar & Shunsuke Managi, 2009. "Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: The Economics of Sustainable Development, chapter 13, pages 221-243, Springer.
    9. Sek, Siok Kun, 2017. "Impact of oil price changes on domestic price inflation at disaggregated levels: Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 204-217.
    10. O. Felix Ayadi, 2005. "Oil price fluctuations and the Nigerian economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(3), pages 199-217, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Jinyu Chen & Xuehong Zhu, 2021. "The Effects of Different Types of Oil Price Shocks on Industrial PPI: Evidence from 36 Sub-industries in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3411-3434, September.
    3. Hong Thai Le & Marta Disegna, 2018. "Responses of macroeconomy and stock markets to structural oil price shocks: New evidence from Asian oil refinery," BAFES Working Papers BAFES25, Department of Accounting, Finance & Economic, Bournemouth University.
    4. Özgür Özaydın, 2019. "Energy Prices-Inflation Nexus: A Historical Analysis for the Case of Ottoman Empire," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(4), pages 86-93, 04-2019.
    5. Chen, Yufeng & Zheng, Biao & Qu, Fang, 2020. "Modeling the nexus of crude oil, new energy and rare earth in China: An asymmetric VAR-BEKK (DCC)-GARCH approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Puah, Chin-Hong & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2019. "Energy subsidy and oil price fluctuation, and price behavior in Malaysia:A time series analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1000-1008.
    7. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Wei, Yanfeng, 2019. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s trade: A quantitative structural analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 20-31.
    10. Enwereuzoh, Precious Adaku & Odei-Mensah, Jones & Owusu Junior, Peterson, 2021. "Crude oil shocks and African stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Hem C. Basnet & Kamal P. Upadhyaya, 2015. "Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3078-3091, June.
    12. Chen, Jinyu & Zhu, Xuehong & Li, Hailing, 2020. "The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on China's inflation: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Yoshikazu Kobayashi, 2016. "Oil price fluctuations and oil consuming sectors: An empirical analysis of Japan," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 33-51.
    15. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Pires Manso, José Ramos, 2014. "The linkage between crude oil consumption and economic growth in Latin America: The panel framework investigations for multiple regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-241.
    16. Pham, Thai-Binh & Sala, Hector, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price and risk-premium shocks on Vietnam: Evidence from an over-identifying SVAR analysis," MPRA Paper 96873, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jul 2019.
    17. Sun, Qingru & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Guo, Sui & Wang, Ze & Liu, Siyao & Wen, Shaobo, 2019. "Effects of crude oil shocks on the PPI system based on variance decomposition network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    18. Rafiq, Shudhasattwa & Sgro, Pasquale & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-50.
    19. Wu, Man-Hwa & Ni, Yen-Sen, 2011. "The effects of oil prices on inflation, interest rates and money," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4158-4164.
    20. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial production index; Oil price; Consumer price index; Bootstrap causality test; Turkish economy JEL Classification : C12 ; E31 ; L11 ; Q41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ist:iujepr:v:8:y:2021:i:2:p:211-223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ertugrul YASAR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifisttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.