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Türkiye’nin Turizm Geliri Serisinin Durağanlığı: Fourier KPSS Durağanlık Test

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  • Eda FENDOGLU

    (Malatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi, İşletme ve Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İşletme Yönetimi, Malatya, Türkiye)

  • Esra CANPOLAT GOKCE

    (İnönü Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler, Ekonometri Bölümü, Malatya, Türkiye)

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 2012-2019 dönemini kapsayan aylık turizm geliri serisinin durağanlığı incelenmiştir. Turizm politikaları geliştirilirken, öngörü için kullanılan turizm serisinin geçmiş değerlerinin gelen şoklardan kalıcı olarak etkilenip etkilenmediği politika yapıcılar açısından önem taşımaktadır. Durağan olmayan seriler gelen şokların etkisinin kalıcı olduğunu gösterirken gelecek ile ilgili öngörüde bulunulmasını engeller. Bu yüzden turizm geliri serisinin durağanlığı öngörü modellemeleri için önemli bir sınama türüdür. Bu bakımdan Türkiye’ye ait turizm geliri serisinin durağanlığı Fourier KPSS durağanlık testi kullanılarak sınanmıştır. Becker vd. (2006) tarafından geliştirilen bu durağanlık testi, Kwitkowski vd. (1992) tarafından önerilen KPSS tipi durağanlık testine dayanır. Literatürde turizm geliri serisinin durağanlığının sınandığı çalışmaların genelinin yakınsama hipotezi sınamaları ve regresyon ilişkileri içerisinde yer aldığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin aylık turizm geliri serisinin durağanlığının Fourier birim kök testi kullanılarak sınanması, literatüre Türkiye’nin turizm geliri serisinin zaman serisi özelliğinin ayrı olarak güçlü bir testle incelenmesi bakımından önemli bir katkı sunacaktır. Fourier birim kök testi yapılarak elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye’nin 2012-2019 dönemini kapsayan aylık verisinin durağan olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç bize belirtilen dönemler için turizm geliri serisi kullanılarak yapılacak regresyon analizlerinin ve gelecek tahminlerinin güvenilir olacağı sonucunu vermektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Eda FENDOGLU & Esra CANPOLAT GOKCE, 2019. "Türkiye’nin Turizm Geliri Serisinin Durağanlığı: Fourier KPSS Durağanlık Test," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(0), pages 17-28, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:ekoist:v:31:y:2019:i:0:p:17-28
    DOI: 10.26650/ekoist.2019.31.0020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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