IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v22n032019p399-430.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital: Forecasting Accuracy for U.S. REIT Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Busato

    (University of Naples)

  • Cuono Massimo Coletta

    (University of Naples)

  • Maria Manganiello

    (University of Naples)

Abstract

One of the fundamental concepts in financial economics is the cost of equity capital. The cost of equity is an important tool often used by a firm as a capital budgeting threshold for the required rate of return. The cost of equity of a firm also represents the compensation the market demands in exchange for owning the asset and bearing the risk of ownership. This paper focuses on the cost of equity capital estimates for a particular U.S. industry, the real estate investment trust (REIT) industry, to highlight the key role played by the choice of estimation method on the distant forecast. By using a comprehensive sample of 51 REITs over the period of January 1997 to December 2014, we compare the ¡§hybrid beta¡¨ approach developed by Cosemans et al. (2016) with the Carhart four-factor model, the REIT-factor model in Chen et al. (2012) and the five-factor model formulated by Fama and French (2015). Our results demonstrate the superiority of the ¡§hybrid beta¡¨ approach, which almost always produces, at the firm and portfolio-levels, absolute forecast errors that are lower than those of the other models implemented in our study.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Busato & Cuono Massimo Coletta & Maria Manganiello, 2019. "Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital: Forecasting Accuracy for U.S. REIT Sector," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(3), pages 399-430.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:22:n:03:2019:p:399-430
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/v22n3-estimating-the-cost-of-equity-capital.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    2. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Glenn Pettengill & Sridhar Sundaram & Ike Mathur, 2002. "Payment For Risk: Constant Beta Vs. Dual‐Beta Models," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 123-135, May.
    4. Vasicek, Oldrich A, 1973. "A Note on Using Cross-Sectional Information in Bayesian Estimation of Security Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(5), pages 1233-1239, December.
    5. Mathijs Cosemans & Rik Frehen & Peter C. Schotman & Rob Bauer, 2016. "Estimating Security Betas Using Prior Information Based on Firm Fundamentals," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 1072-1112.
    6. John L. Glascock & Ran Lu-Andrews, 2018. "The Asymmetric Conditional Beta-Return Relations of REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 231-245, August.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    9. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    10. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    11. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    12. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
    13. Honghui Chen & David H. Downs & Gary A. Patterson, 2012. "The Information Content of REIT Short Interest: Investment Focus and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 249-283, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bilgehan Tekin, 2021. "The Factors Affecting the Market Value/Book Value and Profitability of REITs in Turkey," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 469-499.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Busato & Cuono Massimo Coletta & Maria Manganiello, 2019. "Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital: Forecasting Accuracy for U.S. REIT Sector," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 22(3), pages 401-432.
    2. Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "Heterotic Risk Models," Papers 1508.04883, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    3. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    4. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    5. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.
    6. Rocciolo, Francesco & Gheno, Andrea & Brooks, Chris, 2022. "Explaining abnormal returns in stock markets: An alpha-neutral version of the CAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Kim, Soohun & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2018. "Ex-post risk premia estimation and asset pricing tests using large cross sections: The regression-calibration approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(2), pages 159-188.
    8. French, Declan & Wu, Yuliang & Li, Youwei, 2016. "Identifying the relative importance of stock characteristics," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 80-91.
    9. Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, 2014. "Custom v. Standardized Risk Models," Papers 1409.2575, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    10. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    11. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    12. Clarke, Charles, 2022. "The level, slope, and curve factor model for stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 159-187.
    13. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    14. Sawaliya, Priya & Sinha, Pankaj, 2018. "Behaviour of asset pricing models in pre and post-recession period: an evidence from India," MPRA Paper 93084, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Jan 2019.
    15. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
    16. Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, 2015. "Custom v. Standardized Risk Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-27, May.
    17. Şahin, Baki Cem & Danışoğlu, Seza, 2022. "Ambiguity and asset pricing: An empirical investigation for an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Virk, Nader Shahzad & Butt, Hilal Anwar, 2022. "Asset pricing anomalies: Liquidity risk hedgers or liquidity risk spreaders?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "Russian-Doll Risk Models," Papers 1412.4342, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    20. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cost of Equity; Four-Factor; REIT-Factor; Five-Factor; Forecast Errors; Rolling Regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:22:n:03:2019:p:399-430. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.