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Risk Preferences at Different Time Periods: An Experimental Investigation

Author

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  • Mohammed Abdellaoui

    (GREGHEC-CNRS, HEC-Paris, 78351 Jouy en Josas, France)

  • Enrico Diecidue

    (INSEAD, 77305 Fontainebleau, France)

  • Ayse Öncüler

    (ESSEC Business School, 95021 Cergy, France)

Abstract

Intertemporal decision making under risk involves two dimensions: time preferences and risk preferences. This paper focuses on the impact of time on risk preferences, independent of the intertemporal trade-off of outcomes, i.e., time preferences. It reports the results of an experimental study that examines how delayed resolution and payment of risky options influence individual choice. We used a simple experimental design based on the comparison of two-outcome monetary lotteries with the same delay. Raw data clearly reveal that subjects become more risk tolerant for delayed lotteries. Assuming a prospect theory-like model under risk, we analyze the impact of time on utility and decision weights, independent of time preferences. We show that the subjective treatment of outcomes (i.e., utility) is not significantly affected by time. In fact, the impact of time is completely absorbed by the probability weighting function. The effect of time on risk preferences was found to generate probabilistic optimism resulting in a higher risk tolerance for delayed lotteries. This paper was accepted by Teck Ho, decision analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Abdellaoui & Enrico Diecidue & Ayse Öncüler, 2011. "Risk Preferences at Different Time Periods: An Experimental Investigation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 975-987, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:5:p:975-987
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1324
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    1. Attema, Arthur E. & Brouwer, Werner B.F. & l’Haridon, Olivier, 2013. "Prospect theory in the health domain: A quantitative assessment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1057-1065.
    2. Jinrui Pan & Craig S. Webb & Horst Zank, 2019. "Delayed probabilistic risk attitude: a parametric approach," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 87(2), pages 201-232, September.
    3. Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Schmalz, Martin C., 2016. "Anxiety in the face of risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 414-426.
    4. Patrick DeJarnette & David Dillenberger & Daniel Gottlieb & Pietro Ortoleva, 2014. "Time Lotteries and Stochastic Impatience," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-021, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 13 Jun 2018.
    5. Manel Baucells & Franz H. Heukamp, 2012. "Probability and Time Trade-Off," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(4), pages 831-842, April.
    6. Thomas Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda, 2012. "The missing link: unifying risk taking and time discounting," ECON - Working Papers 096, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Oct 2018.
    7. Neyse, Levent & Vieider, Ferdinand M. & Ring, Patrick & Probst, Catharina & Kaernbach, Christian & Eimeren, Thilo van & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2020. "Risk attitudes and digit ratio (2D:4D): Evidence from prospect theory," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 29-51.
    8. Hammond, Peter J & Zank, Horst, 2013. "Rationality and Dynamic Consistency under Risk and Uncertainty," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1033, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Thomas Eisenbach & Martin Schmalz & Marianne Andries, 2015. "Asset Pricing with Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion," 2015 Meeting Papers 1069, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Neszveda, G., 2019. "Essays on behavioral finance," Other publications TiSEM 05059039-5236-42a3-be1b-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Thomas Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda & Adrian Bruhin, 2011. "Viewing the future through a warped lens: Why uncertainty generates hyperbolic discounting," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 169-203, December.
    12. Patrick DeJarnette & David Dillenberger & Daniel Gottlieb & Pietro Ortoleva, 2020. "Time Lotteries and Stochastic Impatience," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 619-656, March.
    13. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Martin C. Schmalz, 2015. "Anxiety and pro-cyclical risk taking with Bayesian agents," Staff Reports 711, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Lucy F. Ackert & Richard Deaves & Jennifer Miele & Quang Nguyen, 2020. "Are Time Preference and Risk Preference Associated with Cognitive Intelligence and Emotional Intelligence?," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 136-156, April.
    15. Mark Schneider, 2016. "Dual Process Utility Theory: A Model of Decisions Under Risk and Over Time," Working Papers 16-23, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    16. Anke Gerber & Kirsten I. M. Rohde, 2018. "Weighted temporal utility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(1), pages 187-212, July.
    17. V. Cappelli & S. Cerreia-Vioglio & F. Maccheroni & M. Marinacci & S. Minardi, 2018. "Sources of Uncertainty and Subjective Prices," Working Papers 628, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. Holden, Stein T. & Tilahun, Mesfin, 2019. "How related are risk preferences and time preferences?," CLTS Working Papers 4/19, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 16 Oct 2019.
    19. Lipman, Stefan A. & Brouwer, Werner B.F. & Attema, Arthur E., 2020. "Living up to expectations: Experimental tests of subjective life expectancy as reference point in time trade-off and standard gamble," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Savadori, Lucia & Mittone, Luigi, 2015. "Temporal distance reduces the attractiveness of p-bets compared to $-bets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 26-38.
    21. Mark Schneider, 2018. "Modeling Interactions between Risk, Time, and Social Preferences," Working Papers 18-19, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.

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