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Inferring Infection Transmission Parameters That Influence Water Treatment Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen E. Chick

    () (Technology Management Area, INSEAD, Boulevard de Constance, 77305 Fontainebleau CEDEX, France)

  • Sada Soorapanth

    () (Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, 1205 Beal Avenue, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

  • James S. Koopman

    () (Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health-I, and Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, 109 Observatory Street, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

Abstract

One charge of the United States Environmental Protection Agency is to study the risk of infection for microbial agents that can be disseminated through drinking water systems, and to recommend water treatment policy to counter that risk. Recently proposed dynamical system models quantify indirect risks due to secondary transmission, in addition to primary infection risk from the water supply considered by standard assessments. Unfortunately, key parameters that influence water treatment policy are unknown, in part because of lack of data and effective inference methods. This paper develops inference methods for those parameters by using stochastic process models to better incorporate infection dynamics into the inference process. Our use of endemic data provides an alternative to waiting for, identifying, and measuring an outbreak. Data both from simulations and from New York City illustrate the approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen E. Chick & Sada Soorapanth & James S. Koopman, 2003. "Inferring Infection Transmission Parameters That Influence Water Treatment Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(7), pages 920-935, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:49:y:2003:i:7:p:920-935
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.49.7.920.16386
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. anonymous, 2000. "Annual report highlights the Atlanta Fed at work," Financial Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-5.
    2. Anonymous, 2000. "Annual Report On Cotton Economics Research 1999/00," Cotton Economics Research Institute CER Series 31253, Texas Tech University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
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