IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v49y2003i7p920-935.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inferring Infection Transmission Parameters That Influence Water Treatment Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen E. Chick

    (Technology Management Area, INSEAD, Boulevard de Constance, 77305 Fontainebleau CEDEX, France)

  • Sada Soorapanth

    (Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, 1205 Beal Avenue, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

  • James S. Koopman

    (Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health-I, and Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, 109 Observatory Street, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

Abstract

One charge of the United States Environmental Protection Agency is to study the risk of infection for microbial agents that can be disseminated through drinking water systems, and to recommend water treatment policy to counter that risk. Recently proposed dynamical system models quantify indirect risks due to secondary transmission, in addition to primary infection risk from the water supply considered by standard assessments. Unfortunately, key parameters that influence water treatment policy are unknown, in part because of lack of data and effective inference methods. This paper develops inference methods for those parameters by using stochastic process models to better incorporate infection dynamics into the inference process. Our use of endemic data provides an alternative to waiting for, identifying, and measuring an outbreak. Data both from simulations and from New York City illustrate the approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen E. Chick & Sada Soorapanth & James S. Koopman, 2003. "Inferring Infection Transmission Parameters That Influence Water Treatment Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(7), pages 920-935, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:49:y:2003:i:7:p:920-935
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.49.7.920.16386
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.49.7.920.16386
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.49.7.920.16386?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James G. Kahn & Margaret L. Brandeau & John Dunn-Mortimer, 1998. "OR Modeling and AIDS Policy: From Theory to Practice," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 3-22, June.
    2. Edward H. Kaplan & Ron Brookmeyer, 1999. "Snapshot Estimators of Recent HIV Incidence Rates," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 29-37, February.
    3. Hoxie, N.J. & Davis, J.P. & Vergeront, J.M. & Nashold, R.D. & Blair, K.A., 1997. "Cryptosporidiosis-associated mortality following a massive waterborne outbreak in Milwaukee, Wisconsin," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(12), pages 2032-2035.
    4. Tom Britton & Philip D. O'Neill, 2002. "Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Epidemics in Populations with Random Social Structure," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 375-390, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hamed Mamani & Stephen E. Chick & David Simchi-Levi, 2013. "A Game-Theoretic Model of International Influenza Vaccination Coordination," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1650-1670, July.
    2. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2009. "Bayesian Simulation and Decision Analysis: An Expository Survey," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 222-238, December.
    3. Choudhury, Nishat Alam & Ramkumar, M. & Schoenherr, Tobias & Singh, Shalabh, 2023. "The role of operations and supply chain management during epidemics and pandemics: Potential and future research opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tom Britton, 2020. "Epidemic models on social networks—With inference," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 74(3), pages 222-241, August.
    2. Yu Hao & Yujia Li & Zhiyang Shen, 2023. "Does carbon emission trading contribute to reducing infectious diseases? Evidence from China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 74-100, March.
    3. Raji Balasubramanian & Stephen W. Lagakos, 2010. "Correction to article “Estimating HIV Incidence Based on Combined Prevalence Testing”," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 326-326, March.
    4. Steve E. Hrudey, 2011. "Safe Drinking Water Policy for Canada - Turning Hindsight into Foresight," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 323, February.
    5. Razvan G. Romanescu & Rob Deardon, 2017. "Fast Inference for Network Models of Infectious Disease Spread," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 44(3), pages 666-683, September.
    6. repec:plo:pone00:0044377 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gail E. Potter & Niel Hens, 2013. "A penalized likelihood approach to estimate within-household contact networks from egocentric data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(4), pages 629-648, August.
    8. repec:plo:pone00:0020027 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Brian Stone & Jessica L Bullen, 2006. "Urban Form and Watershed Management: How Zoning Influences Residential Stormwater Volumes," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 33(1), pages 21-37, February.
    10. Jing Yao & Alan T. Murray, 2014. "Locational Effectiveness of Clinics Providing Sexual and Reproductive Health Services to Women in Rural Mozambique," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 37(2), pages 172-193, April.
    11. Xiang, Fei & Neal, Peter, 2014. "Efficient MCMC for temporal epidemics via parameter reduction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 240-250.
    12. Yates, Athol, 2014. "A framework for studying mortality arising from critical infrastructure loss," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 100-111.
    13. Rui Wang & Stephen W. Lagakos, 2010. "Augmented Cross-Sectional Prevalence Testing for Estimating HIV Incidence," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 864-874, September.
    14. Lasry, Arielle & Zaric, Gregory S. & Carter, Michael W., 2007. "Multi-level resource allocation for HIV prevention: A model for developing countries," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 786-799, July.
    15. Raji Balasubramanian & Stephen W. Lagakos, 2010. "Estimating HIV Incidence Based on Combined Prevalence Testing," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 1-10, March.
    16. Doug Morrison & Oliver Laeyendecker & Ron Brookmeyer, 2022. "Regression with interval‐censored covariates: Application to cross‐sectional incidence estimation," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 908-921, September.
    17. Kerstin Awiszus & Thomas Knispel & Irina Penner & Gregor Svindland & Alexander Vo{ss} & Stefan Weber, 2022. "Modeling and Pricing Cyber Insurance -- Idiosyncratic, Systematic, and Systemic Risks," Papers 2209.07415, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    18. Gro S. Johannessen & Aina C. Wennberg & Ingrid Nesheim & Ingun Tryland, 2015. "Diverse Land Use and the Impact on (Irrigation) Water Quality and Need for Measures — A Case Study of a Norwegian River," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-23, June.
    19. Richter, Anke & Hicks, Katherine A. & Earnshaw, Stephanie R. & Honeycutt, Amanda A., 2008. "Allocating HIV prevention resources: A tool for state and local decision making," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 342-349, September.
    20. Chris Groendyke & David Welch & David R. Hunter, 2012. "A Network-based Analysis of the 1861 Hagelloch Measles Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 755-765, September.
    21. Sarang Deo & Kumar Rajaram & Sandeep Rath & Uday S. Karmarkar & Matthew B. Goetz, 2015. "Planning for HIV Screening, Testing, and Care at the Veterans Health Administration," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 287-304, April.
    22. David W. Hutton & Margaret L. Brandeau & Samuel K. So, 2011. "Doing Good with Good OR: Supporting Cost-Effective Hepatitis B Interventions," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 289-300, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:49:y:2003:i:7:p:920-935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.