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Can't See the Forest Because of the Decision Trees: A Critique of Decision Analysis in Survey Texts

Author

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  • Kenneth Chelst

    (Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan 48202)

Abstract

Introductory survey texts in operations research and management science have one or two chapters on decision analysis. They vary little from text to text in the topics covered, focusing largely on the analytic aspects of decision analysis. Their authors ignore key elements of decision analysis and the barriers to its use. As a result, they provide little insight as to how decision analysis is used in the real world as part of an intuition-building process and as a communication tool. In a critical review of their presentations, I identify crucial missing or cursorily reviewed topics and emphasize the need for a structured approach that incorporates probabilistic concepts and trade-offs amongst objectives. I present an annotated list of references and a new outline for a six-hour overview of decision analysis (not including multiple objectives) as part of a semester-long OR/MS survey course.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Chelst, 1998. "Can't See the Forest Because of the Decision Trees: A Critique of Decision Analysis in Survey Texts," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 80-98, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:28:y:1998:i:2:p:80-98
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.28.2.80
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F. V. Krumm & C. F. Rolle, 1992. "Management and Application of Decision and Risk Analysis in Du Pont," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 22(6), pages 84-93, December.
    2. Michael R. Walls & G. Thomas Morahan & James S. Dyer, 1995. "Decision Analysis of Exploration Opportunities in the Onshore US at Phillips Petroleum Company," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 39-56, December.
    3. William E. Balson & Justin L. Welsh & Donald S. Wilson, 1992. "Using Decision Analysis and Risk Analysis to Manage Utility Environmental Risk," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 22(6), pages 126-139, December.
    4. David Cohan & Stephen M. Haas & David L. Radloff & Richard F. Yancik, 1984. "Using Fire in Forest Management: Decision Making Under Uncertainty," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 14(5), pages 8-19, October.
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