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The Determinants of Household Debt Default

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Alfaro

    (BBVA Research)

  • Natalia Gallardo

    (MIT Sloan School of Management)

Abstract

In this paper, we study household debt default behavior in Chile using survey data. Previous research in this area suggests financial and personal variables help estimate individual and group probabilities of default. We study mortgage and consumer default separately, as the default decisions and overall borrower behavior are different for each type of debt. Our study finds that income and income-related variables are the only significant and robust variables that explain default for both types of debt. Demographic or personal variables are affected by only one type of debt but not more. For example, the level of education is a factor that affects mortgage default, whereas the determinants of consumer debt default include the age of the household head, and the number of people within the household that contribute to the total family income. We find that the probability of default decreases as the family income increases, and that our estimations are consistent with other studies similar to ours.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Alfaro & Natalia Gallardo, 2012. "The Determinants of Household Debt Default," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 27(1), pages 55-70, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:27:y:2012:i:1:p:55-70
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Benyan Tan & Yingzhu Guo & Yan Wu, 2024. "The influence and mechanism of female-headed households on household debt risk: empirical evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Andrés Alegría & Jorge Bravo, 2015. "Análisis de Riesgo de los Deudores Hipotecarios en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 766, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Asish Saha & Hock-Eam Lim & Goh-Yeok Siew, 2021. "Housing Loan Repayment Behaviour in Malaysia: An Analytical Insight," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Lei Shi & John Evans & Yifei Li, 2018. "A Systems Analysis of Drivers of Individual Bankruptcies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(4), pages 390-398, December.
    5. Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu & Adrian Enciu & Cătălina Adriana Hândoreanu & Carmen Obreja & Florin Blaga, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, March.
    6. Lemus, Antonio & Pulgar, Carlos, 2021. "Households’ Debt Thresholds: A Market Aspects Approach," MPRA Paper 106958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carlos Madeira, 2014. "El Impacto del Endeudamiento y Riesgo de Desempleo en la Morosidad de las Familias Chilenas," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 17(1), pages 88-102, April.
    8. Diego Avanzini & Juan Francisco Martínez & Víctor Pérez, 2016. "A micro-powered model of mortgage default risk for full recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo & Ana María Tribín-Uribe, 2018. "Crédito formal e informal de los hogares en Colombia," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: María José Roa García & Diana Mejía (ed.), Decisiones financieras de los hogares e inclusión financiera: evidencia para América Latina y el Caribe, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 133-166, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    10. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Felipe Martínez, 2020. "Over-indebtedness in Households: Measurement and Determinants," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 869, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Fernando Borraz & Nicolas Gonzalez Pampillon, 2015. "Financial Risk of Uruguayan Households," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 30(2), pages 19-43, October.
    12. Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo & Ana María Tribín-Uribe, 2016. "Determinantes del acceso al crédito formal e informal: Evidencia de los hogares de ingresos medios y bajos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 956, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Avanzini, Diego & Martı́nez, Juan Francisco & Pérez, Vı́ctor, 2020. "Assessing mortgage default risk in full-recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    14. Surjaningsih, Ndari & Werdaningtyas, Hesti & Rahman, Faizal & Falaqh, Romadhon, 2022. "Predicting Household Resilience Before and During Pandemic with Classifier Algorithms," OSF Preprints w5q9g, Center for Open Science.
    15. Sweet, Elizabeth & Nandi, Arijit & Adam, Emma K. & McDade, Thomas W., 2013. "The high price of debt: Household financial debt and its impact on mental and physical health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 94-100.
    16. Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo & Ana María Tribín-Uribe, 2018. "Formal and Informal Household Credit in Colombia," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: María José Roa García & Diana Mejía (ed.), Financial Decisions of Households and Financial Inclusion: Evidence for Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 125-156, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    17. Gamba-Santamaria, Santiago & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Orozco-Vanegas, Camilo, 2024. "Decomposition of non-performing loans dynamics into a debt-servicing capacity and a risk taking indicators," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    18. María José Roa García & Diana Mejía (ed.), 2018. "Financial Decisions of Households and Financial Inclusion: Evidence for Latin America and the Caribbean," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, edition 1, volume 1, number 7en, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Riesgo de crédito; no-pago hipotecario.;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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