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Case Study: Welfare and poverty impacts of trade liberalization: a dynamic CGE microsimulation analysis

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  • Selim Raihan

    () (Dept. of Economics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh;)

Abstract

This case study focuses on the application of a dynamic top-down CGE microsimulation model of the Bangladesh economy. Specifically, this paper examines the macroeconomic, poverty and welfare impacts of complete and unilateral domestic trade liberalization in Bangladesh over the last two decades. Two different poverty lines for rural and urban households are used, which are endogenously determined by the model taking into account the rural and urban Consumer Price Indices (CPIs). The results suggests marked differences between the short and long run impacts of tariff liberalization. In the short run there are possibilities of reduced welfare and increased poverty. However, in the long run, resources are reallocated towards the more efficient and expanding sectors, generating positive outcomes in terms of welfare gains and poverty reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Selim Raihan, 2010. "Case Study: Welfare and poverty impacts of trade liberalization: a dynamic CGE microsimulation analysis," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 123-126.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:3:y:2010:i:1:p:123-126
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    File URL: http://ima.natsem.canberra.edu.au/IJM/V3_1/IJM_35.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6586, July.
    2. Luc Savard, 2003. "Poverty and Income Distribution in a CGE-Household Micro-Simulation Model: Top-Down/Bottom Up Approach," Cahiers de recherche 0343, CIRPEE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hielke Buddelmeyer & Nicolas Hérault & Guyonne Kalb & Mark van Zijll de Jong, 2012. "Linking a Microsimulation Model to a Dynamic CGE Model: Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Income Distribution in Australia," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(2), pages 40-58.
    2. Andrew Feltenstein & Luciana Lopes & Janet Porras Mendoza & Sally Wallace, 2013. "“The Impact of Micro-simulation and CGE modeling on Tax Reform and Tax Advice in Developing Countries”: A Survey of Alternative Approaches and an Application to Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1309, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    3. Maheshwar Rao & Robert Tanton & Yogi Vidyattama, 2013. "‘A Systems Approach to Analyse the Impacts of Water Policy Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin: a conceptual and an analytical framework’," NATSEM Working Paper Series 13/22, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    4. Saeed Solaymani & Mehdi Shokrinia, 2016. "Economic and environmental effects of trade liberalization in Malaysia," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 18(1), pages 101-120, October.
    5. Autsawin Suttiwichienchot & Nattapong Puttanapong, 2014. "A Study on Internal Labor Movement and Policy Multiplier in Thailand," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 2(3), pages 57-68.
    6. Andrew Feltenstein & Luciana Lopes & Janet Porras-Mendoza & Sally Wallace, 2014. "Modeling tax reform in developing countries," Chapters,in: Taxation and Development: The Weakest Link?, chapter 3, pages 69-102 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. repec:lje:journl:v:22:y:2017:i:2:p:65-88 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Obeng, Camara Kwasi, 2014. "Impact of import liberalisation on poverty: a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation analysis for Ghana," MPRA Paper 58182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Andrew Feltenstein & Carolina Mejia, 2015. "The Poverty Implications of Alternative Tax Reforms: Some Countries Intuitive Results In an Application to Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1506, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.

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    Keywords

    trade liberalization; CPI; top-down; CGE; Bangladesh;

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