The Dynamics Spillover Of Trade Between Indonesia And Its Counterparts In Terms Of Afta 2015 : A Modified Gravity Equation Approach

As economies become more integrated in the midst of globalization, financial crisis that occurs in one country can easily transmit to other countries, becoming global financial catastrophe in a short period of time. In such event, strong economic fundamentals are particularly important to defend a country from the contagious effect of the crisis. As evidence, due to the fragile economic fundamentals and lacking government credibility, East Asian economies were easily attacked by the crisis in 1997 once the sentiment deteriorated. Nevertheless, the region had learned its lessons in 1997 thereby proofing its resilience in facing the global financial crisis that struck in 2008 by improving its economic fundamentals as well as policymakers’ credibility. This paper starts with theories on economic growth and financial crisis. Further, it empirically examines to what extent the financial crises in 1997 and 2008 affect East Asian economies by using panel data econometrics. The evidence shows that, even though both crises have contributed adverse impacts on East Asian economies, the magnitude of the 2008 crisis was relatively less severe than that in 1997. Finally, this study also provides further discussions regarding how East Asian economies had successfully minimized the impact of the global crisis in 2008.