IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hpe/journl/y2023v246i3p137-164.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelización de los factores que afectan al fraude fiscal con técnicas de minería de datos: aplicación al Impuesto de la Renta en España

Author

Listed:
  • César Pérez López

    (Instituto de Estudios Fiscales- Universidad Rey Juan Carlos)

  • María Jesús Delgado Rodríguez

    (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos)

  • Sonia de Lucas Santos

    (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)

Abstract

This paper presents a proposal to model and predict the behavior of Personal Income Tax (IRPF) tax-payers with data mining techniques. Decision trees and discriminant analysis are combined to quantify each taxpayer's propensity to fraud using the tax components with the highest incidence of fraud. The model achieves an average efficiency in predictions of more than 89%, allowing respondents to be segmented by level of propensity to fraud. The proposal can be used in the audit and control process carried out by the Tax Agency.

Suggested Citation

  • César Pérez López & María Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Sonia de Lucas Santos, 2023. "Modelización de los factores que afectan al fraude fiscal con técnicas de minería de datos: aplicación al Impuesto de la Renta en España," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 246(3), pages 137-164, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2023:v:246:i:3:p:137-164
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hpe-rpe.org/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php?juwpfisadmin=false&action=wpfd&task=file.download&wpfd_category_id=234&wpfd_file_id=5309&token=3e7e605da29f529dff4ad19b0a179b3a&preview=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Alm, 2021. "Tax evasion, technology, and inequality," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 321-343, December.
    2. Andreas BUEHN & Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Size and Development of Tax Evasion in 38 OECD Coutries: What do we (not) know?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-11, March.
    3. Prichard,Wilson & Custers,Anna Louise & Dom,Roel & Davenport,Stephen R. & Roscitt,Michael Anthony, 2019. "Innovations in Tax Compliance : Conceptual Framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9032, The World Bank.
    4. Camino González Vasco & María Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Sonia de Lucas Santos, 2021. "Segmentation of Potential Fraud Taxpayers and Characterization in Personal Income Tax Using Data Mining Techniques," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 127-157, November.
    5. Amakoe D. Alognon & Antonios M. Koumpias & Jorge Martínez-Vázquez, 2021. "The Impact of Plastic Money Use on VAT Compliance: Evidence from EU Countries," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 5-26, November.
    6. Mr. John D Brondolo & Annette Chooi & Trevor Schloss & Anthony Siouclis, 2022. "Compliance Risk Management: Developing Compliance Improvement Plans," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2022/001, International Monetary Fund.
    7. César Pérez López & María Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Sonia de Lucas Santos, 2019. "Tax Fraud Detection through Neural Networks: An Application Using a Sample of Personal Income Taxpayers," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, March.
    8. Pierce O’Reilly & Kevin Parra Ramírez & Michael A. Stemmer, 2021. "Exchange of Information and Bank Deposits in International Financial Centres," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 27-69, November.
    9. Sara Torregrosa-Hetland, 2020. "Inequality in tax evasion: the case of the Spanish income tax," Applied Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 28(83), pages 89-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James Alm, 2024. "Tax Compliance, Technology, Trust, and Inequality in a Post-Pandemic World," Working Papers 2404, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    2. Xuefeng Shao & Shi Chen, 2024. "Research on Tax Compliance Incentive Effects of Platform Companies from the Perspective of Incomplete Contract – An Empirical Study Based on China," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 26(65), pages 330-330, February.
    3. Oksana N. Harkushenko, 2022. "Prospects of VAT Administration Improvement in Digitalized World: Analytical Review," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 8(1), pages 6-24.
    4. Kim, Jiwoon, 2022. "Factors for the Decline of the Self-employed in Korea: A Search and Matching Model Approach," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 44(2), pages 45-71.
    5. Lompo, Miaba Louise & Ouoba, Marie Madeleine, 2022. "How they hide money? An investigation on tax evasion of large corporations and wealthy taxpayers," MPRA Paper 113410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    7. Dale, Elina & Peacocke, Elizabeth F. & Movik, Espen & Voorhoeve, Alex & Ottersen, Trygve & Kurowski, Christoph & Evans, David B. & Norheim, Ole Frithjof & Gopinathan, Unni, 2023. "Criteria for the procedural fairness of health financing decisions: a scoping review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119799, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Gamannossi degl’Innocenti, Duccio & Levaggi, Rosella & Menoncin, Francesco, 2022. "Tax avoidance and evasion in a dynamic setting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 443-456.
    9. Amzuică Bogdan – Florian & Mititelu Roxana – Adriana & Nișulescu Ileana, 2023. "Digitalization of Business – Implications on Tax Evasion Dimensions," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 1888-1896, July.
    10. Amakoe D. Alognon & Antonios M. Koumpias & Jorge Martínez-Vázquez, 2021. "The Impact of Plastic Money Use on VAT Compliance: Evidence from EU Countries," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 5-26, November.
    11. Pierce O’Reilly & Kevin Parra Ramírez & Michael A. Stemmer, 2021. "Exchange of Information and Bank Deposits in International Financial Centres," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 27-69, November.
    12. Arun Advani & Hannah Tarrant, 2021. "Behavioural responses to a wealth tax," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3-4), pages 509-537, September.
    13. Mohammed Saleh Al-Maghrebi & Noor Sharoja Sapiei & Mazni Abdullah, 2022. "Power, Trust and Transparency as Determinant Factors of Tax Compliance: A Systematic Review," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 8(3), pages 312-335.
    14. Paolo Acciari & Facundo Alvaredo & Salvatore Morelli, 2021. "The concentration of personal wealth in Italy 1995-2016," PSE Working Papers halshs-03226113, HAL.
    15. Ioannis Gasteratos & Michael Karamalis & Andreas Koutoupis, 2016. "Shadow Economy Worsens Income distribution," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 80-92.
    16. Capasso, Salvatore & Cicatiello, Lorenzo & De Simone, Elina & Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio & Mourão, Paulo Reis, 2021. "Fiscal transparency and tax ethics: does better information lead to greater compliance?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 1031-1050.
    17. Antón, Arturo & Hernández-Trillo, Fausto & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2021. "(In)Effective tax enforcement and demand for cash," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    18. Ludger Schuknecht & Vincent Siegerink, 2021. "The Political Economy of the International Tax Transparency Agenda in the G20/OECD Context," CESifo Working Paper Series 8813, CESifo.
    19. Camino González Vasco & María Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Sonia de Lucas Santos, 2021. "Segmentation of Potential Fraud Taxpayers and Characterization in Personal Income Tax Using Data Mining Techniques," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 127-157, November.
    20. Gamannossi degl’Innocenti, Duccio & Rablen, Matthew D., 2020. "Tax evasion on a social network," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 79-91.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax fraud; Data mining; Personal income tax; Prediction.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2023:v:246:i:3:p:137-164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Miguel Gómez de Antonio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iefgves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.