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Foresight Applications to the Analysis of Global Value Chains

Author

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  • Tatyana Meshkova

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics (Russian Federation))

  • Evgeny Moiseichev

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics (Russian Federation))

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving the empirical and methodological foundation of global value chains (GVCs) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through applying Foresight methodology. The authors review the major trends of global value chains’ development, specific features of Russia’s participation in them, and the necessary steps to increase the quality and efficiency of this participation, in particular in the changing geopolitical context. Special attention was paid to the theoretical, methodological, and empirical aspects of GVC research which are far from adequate (we primarily mean international databases such as TiVA and WIOD developed with the participation of the OECD and the WTO): they need to be supplemented with advanced tools to improve their forecasting potential, as well as their practical and strategic orientation. To this end, approaches which would make it possible to research the interconnections between global processes and trends with regional and national innovation-based development tendencies become of crucial importance. Application of Foresight methodology may significantly contribute to researching the GVC phenomenon, being a major logical step towards creating advanced research and policy tools to mobilise available resources and coordinate stakeholders’ actions to increase global competitiveness. The paper presents several case studies which describe the practical application of Foresight methodology to analyse Russian participation in various GVCs, giving examples of specific product and service groups. The authors conclude that both full-scale Foresight studies and specific components thereof could be applied for the purposes of GVC analysis, strategic planning, and political decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatyana Meshkova & Evgeny Moiseichev, 2016. "Foresight Applications to the Analysis of Global Value Chains," Foresight and STI Governance, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 69-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:69-82
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Igor Drapkin & Anna Fedyunina & Yuri Simachev, . "GVC spillovers on total factor productivity of local firms: evidence from the Russian Federation," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    2. Alina Steblyanskaya & Xu Qingchao & Svetlana Razmanova & Nikolay Steblyanskiy & Artem Denisov, 2021. "China and Russia Energy Strategy Development: Arctic LNG," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 450-460.
    3. Eva Cihelková & Irina Platonova & Yelena Frolova, 2019. "Comparative Analysis of Supporting Small and Medium Enterprises for Enhancing Created Added Value in the EU and China," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 256-269.
    4. Olga Alexandrovna Klochko & Anastasia Sergeevna Tsareva, 2020. "Global Value Chains in Electronics: Regional Post-2008 Crisis Regional Changes," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 3, pages 52-75.

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    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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