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Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • James E. Neumann

    (Industrial Economics, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA)

  • Kerry A. Emanuel

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA)

  • Sai Ravela

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA)

  • Lindsay C. Ludwig

    (Industrial Economics, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA)

  • Caroleen Verly

    (Industrial Economics, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA)

Abstract

This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam. Permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones are analyzed by combining sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with simulated storm surge levels for the 100-year event. Our analysis finds that sea level rise through 2050 could increase the effective frequency of the current 100-year storm surge, which is associated with a storm surge of roughly five meters, to once every 49 years. Approximately 10% of the Hanoi region’s GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and more than 40% is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage consistent with the current 100-year storm. We conclude that coastal adaptation measures, such as a planned retreat from the sea, and construction of a more substantial seawall and dike system, are needed to respond to these threats.

Suggested Citation

  • James E. Neumann & Kerry A. Emanuel & Sai Ravela & Lindsay C. Ludwig & Caroleen Verly, 2015. "Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:6:p:6553-6572:d:50152
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul S. Chinowsky & Amy E. Schweikert & Niko Strzepek & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-080, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Fant, Charles & Gebretsadik, Yohannes & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 079, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Strzepek, Kenneth & Strzepek, Niko & Schweikert, Amy E. & Chinowsky, Paul S., 2012. "Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 080, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-082 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Yohannes Gebretsadik & Charles Fant & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-079, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. World Bank, 2009. "Convenient Solutions to an Inconvenient Truth : Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change," World Bank Publications - Reports 3062, The World Bank Group.
    11. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Vietnam," World Bank Publications - Reports 12747, The World Bank Group.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Md Golam Azam & Md Mujibor Rahman, 2022. "Assessing spatial vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and extremes: a geographic information system approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-35, August.
    4. Socorro Margarita T. Rodrigo & Cesar L. Villanoy & Jeric C. Briones & Princess Hope T. Bilgera & Olivia C. Cabrera & Gemma Teresa T. Narisma, 2018. "The mapping of storm surge-prone areas and characterizing surge-producing cyclones in Leyte Gulf, Philippines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1305-1320, July.
    5. Paul S. Chinowsky & Amy E. Schweikert & Niko Strzepek & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Tam Bang Vu & Eric Iksoon Im & Karla Hayashi & Ryan Torio, 2017. "Cyclones, Deforestation, and Production of Food Crops in Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 245-262, October.
    7. Yongjiu Feng & Qianqian Yang & Xiaohua Tong & Jiafeng Wang & Shurui Chen & Zhenkun Lei & Chen Gao, 2019. "Long-Term Regional Environmental Risk Assessment and Future Scenario Projection at Ningbo, China Coupling the Impact of Sea Level Rise," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Beatriz Azevedo de Almeida & Ali Mostafavi, 2016. "Resilience of Infrastructure Systems to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Areas: Impacts, Adaptation Measures, and Implementation Challenges," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-28, November.
    9. Md Mofakkarul Islam & Md Abdullah Mamun, 2020. "Beyond the risks to food availability – linking climatic hazard vulnerability with the food access of delta-dwelling households," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(1), pages 37-58, February.
    10. Wisdom Akpalu & Channing Arndt & Innocent Matshe, 2015. "Introduction to the Special Issue on the Economics of Climate Change Impacts on Developing Countries: Selected Studies on Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-5, September.

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