How to Fit Energy Demand Under the Constraint of EU 2030 and FIT for 55 Goals: An Italian Case Study

Replacing approximately 7,000,000 internal combustion vehicles by 2030 with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and promoting renewable energy sources are among the main strategies for decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and pollution in urban areas proposed in the EU FIT 55 program. Increasing the number of BEVs will lead to an increase in the electrical energy demand, which, according to the FIT 55 program, will be mainly supplied by the exploitation of renewable energies. In the present study, several possible scenarios were investigated for supplying the electrical energy necessary for the 7,000,000 BEVs within the goals imposed by FIT 55. To address this objective, four scenarios were proposed and analyzed for Italy, paying attention to the renewable energy share imposed by the EU on this country. The scenarios were photovoltaic-based; wind based; nuclear power-based; and thermal resource-based. The results show that if the EU FIT 55 goals are realized and 20% of the current number of internal combustion vehicles are replaced by BEV ones, there will be an energy imbalance at different times of the day. In the first scenario, if photovoltaic resources are used to the maximum extent to address the energy deficit, a 5.5-fold increase in the number of solar panels is required compared to 2023. In the second scenario, a 2.6-fold increase in the number of existing wind turbines is estimated to be required. In the third scenario, the supply of the energy deficit from nuclear resources with the production of 8.5 kWh in the daily energy cycle is examined. The use of the BESS to store excess energy at certain hours of the day and during energy shortage hours has been examined, indicating that on average, based on different scenarios, a system with a minimum capacity of 24 gigawatts and a maximum of about 130 gigawatts will be required. The fourth scenario is also possible based on the Fit for 55 targets and the use of thermal resources. An increase of 10 to 25 gigawatts is visible in each scenario during peak energy production hours. Also, a comparison of the scenarios shows that the energy storage during the surplus hours of scenario 1 is much greater than in the other scenarios.