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A Combined Forecasting Model Based on a Modified Pelican Optimization Algorithm for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Speed

Author

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  • Lei Guo

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    School of Electrical Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, China)

  • Chang Xu

    (School of Renewable Energy, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Xin Ai

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, China)

  • Xingxing Han

    (School of Renewable Energy, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Feifei Xue

    (School of Renewable Energy, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract

Ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting is crucial for ensuring the safe grid integration of wind energy and promoting the efficient utilization and sustainable development of renewable energy sources. However, due to the arbitrary, intermittent, and volatile nature of wind speed, achieving satisfactory forecasts is challenging. This paper proposes a combined forecasting model using a modified pelican optimization algorithm, variational mode decomposition, and long short-term memory. To address issues in the current combination model, such as poor optimization and convergence performance, the pelican optimization algorithm is improved by incorporating tent map-based population initialization, Lévy flight strategy, and classification optimization concepts. Additionally, to obtain the optimal parameter combination, the modified pelican optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory, further enhancing the model’s predictive accuracy and stability. Wind speed data from a wind farm in China are used for prediction, and the proposed combined model is evaluated using six indicators. Compared to the best model among all compared models, the proposed model shows a 10.05% decrease in MAE, 4.62% decrease in RMSE, 17.43% decrease in MAPE, and a 0.22% increase in R 2 . The results demonstrate that the proposed model has better accuracy and stability, making it effective for wind speed prediction in wind farms.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Guo & Chang Xu & Xin Ai & Xingxing Han & Feifei Xue, 2025. "A Combined Forecasting Model Based on a Modified Pelican Optimization Algorithm for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Speed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-31, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:5:p:2081-:d:1601872
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    References listed on IDEAS

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