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Bridging the AI–Energy Paradox: A Compute-Additionality Covenant for System Adequacy in Energy Transition

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  • George Kyriakarakos

    (Department of Natural Resources Development & Agricultural Engineering, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 11855 Athens, Greece)

Abstract

As grids decarbonize and end-use sectors electrify, the rapid penetration of artificial intelligence (AI) and hyperscale data centers reshapes the electrical load profile and power quality requirements. This leads not only to higher consumption but also coincident demand in constrained urban nodes, steeper ramps and tighter power quality constraints. The article investigates to what extent a compute-additionality covenant can reduce resource inadequacy (LOLE) at an acceptable $/kW-yr under realistic grid constraints, tying interconnection/capacity releases to auditable contributions (ELCC-accredited firm-clean MW in-zone or verified PCC-level services such as FFR/VAR/black-start). Using two worked cases (mature market and EMDE context) the way in which tranche-gated interconnection, ELCC accreditation and PCC-level services can hold LOLE at the planning target while delivering auditable FFR/VAR/ride-through performance at acceptable normalized costs is illustrated. Enforcement relies on standards-based telemetry and cybersecurity (IEC 61850/62351/62443) and PCC compliance (e.g., IEEE/IEC). Supply and network-side options are screened with stage-gates and indicative ELCC/PCC contributions. In a representative mature case, adequacy at 0.1 day·yr −1 is maintained at ≈$200 per compute-kW-yr. A covenant term sheet (tranche sizing, benefit–risk sharing, compliance workflow) is developed along an integration roadmap. Taken together, this perspective outlines a governance mechanism that aligns rapid compute growth with system adequacy and decarbonization.

Suggested Citation

  • George Kyriakarakos, 2025. "Bridging the AI–Energy Paradox: A Compute-Additionality Covenant for System Adequacy in Energy Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-50, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:21:p:9444-:d:1778559
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    References listed on IDEAS

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