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Resilience Assessment of Forest Fires Based on a Game-Theoretic Combination Weighting Method

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  • Zhengtong Lv

    (School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China
    Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Safe and Efficient Mining of Rare Metal Resource, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China)

  • Junqiao Xiong

    (School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China
    Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Safe and Efficient Mining of Rare Metal Resource, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China)

  • Mingfu Zhuo

    (School of Civil and Surveying & Mapping Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China)

  • Yuxian Ke

    (School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China
    Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Safe and Efficient Mining of Rare Metal Resource, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China
    Yichun Lithium New Energy Industry Research Institute, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Yichun 336000, China)

  • Qian Kang

    (School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China
    Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Safe and Efficient Mining of Rare Metal Resource, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China)

Abstract

The increasing frequency and severity of forest fires, driven by climate change and intensified human activities, pose substantial threats to ecological security and sustainable development. However, most assessments remain centered on occurrence risk, lack a resilience-oriented perspective and comprehensive indicator systems, and therefore offer limited guidance for building system resilience. This study developed a forest fire resilience (FFR) assessment framework with 25 indicators in three levels and six domains across four resilience dimensions. Balancing expert judgment and data, we obtained indicator weights by integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) via a game-theoretic scheme. The analysis revealed that, among the level-2 indicators, climate factors, infrastructure, and vegetation characteristics exert the greatest influence on FFR. At the level-3 indicator scale, monthly minimum relative humidity, fine fuel load per unit area, and the deployment of smart monitoring systems were critical. Among the four resilience dimensions, absorption capacity plays the predominant role in shaping disaster response. Building on these findings, the study proposes targeted strategies to enhance FFR and applies the assessment framework to twelve administrative divisions of Baise City, China, highlighting marked spatial variability in resilience levels. The results offer valuable theoretical insights and practical guidance for strengthening FFR.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhengtong Lv & Junqiao Xiong & Mingfu Zhuo & Yuxian Ke & Qian Kang, 2025. "Resilience Assessment of Forest Fires Based on a Game-Theoretic Combination Weighting Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:17:p:7907-:d:1740766
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Houdong Liu & Qian Kang & Yi Zou & Songtao Yu & Yuxian Ke & Pin Peng, 2023. "Research on Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Metal Mine Emergency Rescue System Based on Game Theory and Regret Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Songtao Yu & Houdong Liu & Qian Kang & Juan Cheng & Yingli Gong & Yuxian Ke, 2024. "Research on the Fire Resilience Assessment of Ancient Architectural Complexes Based on the AHP-CRITIC Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Jiawei Qi & Yichen Zhang & Jiquan Zhang & Yanan Chen & Chenyang Wu & Chenyu Duan & Zhongshuai Cheng & Zengkai Pan, 2022. "Research on the Evaluation of Geological Environment Carrying Capacity Based on the AHP-CRITIC Empowerment Method," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Svitlana Boychenko & Tetyana Kuchma & Victor Karamushka & Nadiia Maidanovych & Olena Kozak, 2025. "Wildfires and Climate Change in the Ukrainian Polissia During 2001–2023," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-30, March.
    5. Woods, David D., 2015. "Four concepts for resilience and the implications for the future of resilience engineering," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 5-9.
    6. Deniz Arca & Mercan Hacısalihoğlu & Ş. Hakan Kutoğlu, 2020. "Producing forest fire susceptibility map via multi-criteria decision analysis and frequency ratio methods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 73-89, October.
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