How can China’s manufacturing industry achieve better development? A carbon resilience perspective based on the system GMM model

Under China’s “double carbon” goals, which are to achieve carbon peak (CO2 emissions peak by 2030) and carbon neutrality (net-zero CO2 emissions by 2060), the manufacturing industry is facing the dilemma of low-carbon transition. Enhancing the industry’s resilience to these challenges is crucial for improving the quality of its development. This article introduces a new concept of “carbon resilience”, based on resilience theory. Carbon resilience refers to the endogenous dynamic capability of the manufacturing industry to respond to the long-term heightened demands and short-term constraints imposed by relevant low-carbon emission reduction policies, exemplified by the “double carbon” goals. Then, using industry data for 25 manufacturing sectors from 2011 to 2020, we explore the impact of overall carbon resilience, as well as carbon resilience of manufacturing industries with different carbon emission intensities, on the quality of industry development. We also explore the mediating role of resource allocation efficiency in these relationships. Finally, we conduct a predictive analysis of the relationship between carbon resilience and the quality of industry development from 2024 to 2030. The results indicate a significant positive correlation between carbon resilience and the quality of industry development. The impact of carbon resilience on development quality is greatest in high-carbon emission industries, followed by medium-carbon emission industries, and weakest in low-carbon emission industries. Additionally, in the manufacturing industry and high-carbon emission industries, resource allocation efficiency plays a sufficiently mediating role between carbon resilience and the quality of industry development. However, in medium- and low-carbon emission industries, resource allocation efficiency does not mediate between the two. Notably, further predictions reveal that carbon resilience will have a negative impact on the quality of industry development between 2024 and 2030. Based on these findings, policymakers should actively shape carbon resilience, optimize the production process through technological innovation, promote the industrial chain’s extension into high-tech industries, and optimize the efficiency of resource allocation, thus comprehensively promoting the quality of industry development.